NEW YORK --- If you were hoping to find massive clearance sales as you finish up your holiday shopping, prepare to be disappointed.
Major stores that had worried it would take across-the-board discounts to lure shoppers are backing away from the panic button.
Sales last week were up 18 percent from the week before, and a little more than 1 percent higher than a year before, according to figures released Wednesday by research firm ShopperTrak.
And because stores didn't load up on merchandise like they did last year before the financial meltdown, they have the luxury of sticking to their original plans for discounts -- not desperately slashing prices as Christmas nears.
"The difference between this year and last year was planning," said Scott Krugman, a spokesman at the National Retail Federation, the world's largest retail trade group, which hasn't changed its forecast for a 1 percent decline in holiday sales. "Retailers had time to plan whereas last year they didn't."
There are plenty of deals to be had, and discounts will probably be deeper this weekend, the last before Christmas, as happens most years. But people waiting for mounds of merchandise with 80 percent discounts -- well, they might be left waiting.
"Stores did a better job in matching supply with demand," said BMO Capital Markets retail analyst John Morris.
For stores, the success of the holiday season depends on the week before Dec. 25, which accounts for about a quarter of holiday sales, according to ShopperTrak, which tracks sales at more than 50,000 outlets.
In fact, the Saturday before Christmas usually rivals the day after Thanksgiving in sales volume. The last week "is where the rubber meets the road," said John Long, a retail strategist at Kurt Salmon Associates.
And stores have reason for some optimism: Shoppers don't seem as far along in their gift-buying as they were last year at this point, according to both the National Retail Federation and the International Council of Shopping Centers.
Retailers are pinning hopes on shoppers such as Marney Bilodeau, who said she's cramming all her buying in this week and next.
"I haven't felt like it up until now," said Ms. Bilodeau, who was at Arizona's Scottsdale Fashion Square. "I try to budget the rest of the year, so that I can fit in a little bit more around Christmas time."
RETAIL BAROMETERS
HOLIDAY SALES AND TRAFFIC
Holiday sales are running about even with a projected 1.6 percent growth forecast, ShopperTrak co-founder Bill Martin said. The ShopperTrak forecast was one of few that predicted gains. Last year sales were down 6 percent.
Customer traffic is down about 4 percent compared with last year, which saw a 15 percent plunge. Online, sales from Nov. 1 through Sunday were up 4 percent, comScore Inc. reported.
DISCOUNTING
Stores had planned aggressive discounts for this holiday season, knowing shoppers, worried about tight credit and jobs, would be scouring for deals.
That strategy, combined with tight inventories, has meant that discounting has been similar to that of 2006, before the economy began to sour, according to Dan de Grandpre, the editor-in-chief of discount guide dealnews.com.
For example, shoppers found clothing discounted 40 to 50 percent over Thanksgiving weekend. Those deals were scaled back to 20 to 40 percent in the two weeks after. This week, stores are deepening the top discounts to 60 percent and possibly to 70 percent this weekend, he said, which is typical for the shopping calendar.
INVENTORY
With stores cautious about the holiday season, shoppers found some hot items, particularly in toys, in short supply as early as a month ago.
Toys R Us has been the one chain that has consistently received ample shipments of hard-to-find Zhu Zhu Pets and popular items like Mattel's Barbie Fashionista, though they sell out as soon as they're put out.
WHAT LOCAL SHOPPERS ARE SAYING
Spending less, more or about the same this year on holiday gifts is a personal decision, as evidenced this week by several area shoppers:
- "I'm looking for gifts that are a little more meaningful because I've had to cut back. I'm looking for things that are more personalized," said Sandy Earley, of Graniteville, who is spending about 40 percent less. Ms. Earley purchased small candy cane ornaments with family members' names on them while shopping at Belk on Knox Avenue in North Augusta on Tuesday.
- "The people that I purchase for have not increased or decreased in any way, so I'm going to be spending about the same thing. The economy is not really affecting what I'm going to be spending," said Carolyn Green, who was shopping at Kmart in North Augusta for an ornament for her daughter's white elephant party at school.
- Teresa Patterson, of Aiken, is spending about $400 to $500 more than last year: "I love shopping. It's a hobby," said Ms. Patterson, who is buying gifts for her family and coworkers, as well as a needy family. On Tuesday, she was at Hamrick's in North Augusta buying watch gift sets that were on sale.
-- Compiled by LaTina Emerson, staff writer
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