Sales offer retailers hope

NEW YORK --- The early picture of October retail sales shows more signs of a spending recovery, lifting hopes for a slightly merrier holiday season and for the overall economy.

The brighter outlook among analysts came before today's sales reports from major retailers, which are expected to show the second consecutive monthly gain after more than a year of declines.

Shoppers are treating themselves to little indulgences such as boots and purchasing some merchandise at full price.

SpendingPulse, a service of MasterCard Advisors, reported Wednesday that jewelry (up 7.2 percent) and clothing (up 3.4 percent) showed signs of life in October compared with a year earlier, when spending was in a free fall. But those figures were well below the levels two years ago and only slightly better than 2005. SpendingPulse estimates sales in all payment forms.

A flurry of apparel retailers from T.J. Maxx to J. Crew Group Inc. have raised their profit outlooks in recent weeks.

Consumer spending accounts for about 70 percent of all economic activity by federal measures, so evidence that consumers are opening their wallets a little more could provide incentive for factories to step up production of goods.

Signs of life in spending "should offer evidence that these businesses need to start boosting their investment to feed this return of consumer demand," said Frank Badillo, a senior economist at consulting group TNS Retail Forward.

Cooler weather helped October sales of plaid shirts and leggings. Ken Perkins, the president of retail research firm Retail Metrics, said early holiday discounts also might have drawn shoppers last month.

Michael P. Niemira, the chief economist at the International Council of Shopping Centers, expects its analysis of October retail sales to show at least a 1 percent gain. That estimate compares with a 4.2 percent decline in October 2008.