Which holiday tune will retailers be humming this Christmas? Will it be Elvis Presley's Blue Christmas or Burl Ives' Holly Jolly Christmas?
The National Retail Federation is forecasting a 1 percent decline in holiday sales.
The prediction on local sales -- coming from some of the retailers -- is rosier.
"We're going to stay even or better than last year," said Van Smith, the owner of men's clothing store Lionel Smith Ltd. in downtown Aiken. "There is a bit of pent-up demand right now. People didn't get out as much last year. I think they'll be spending a little bit more this year."
Evans specialty toy shop owner Trey Allen can tell that shoppers are already buying for Christmas because they're using his store's free wrapping service.
"People are shopping early and trying to get as many deals as they can," said the owner of Learning Express Toys on Washington Road.
Mr. Allen said he expects sales to be up this year, partly because of his new location, but also based on optimism that the area has weathered the downturn well.
Sales in the next eight weeks until Christmas can make or break a retailer.
"Traditionally, toy stores especially do somewhere between a third and a half of their business in the final quarter. It is a huge chunk of our business," Mr. Allen said.
Mr. Smith said he believes the 2008 holiday shopping season was rough on everybody.
"And everything that we had was late (getting to the store), the last 10 days," he said.
Nationally, the sales decline from 2007 to 2008 was 3.4 percent, according to the federation.
The retail trade organization expects consumers to spend $437.6 billion in the next two months. Shoppers are predicted to spend an average of $682 on the holidays this year, down from $705 last year.
"While last holiday season was filled with chaotic confusion, adjusting to uncertainty has now become routine for many Americans," said Tracy Mullin, the federation president. "This holiday season will be a bit of a dance between retailers and shoppers, with each group feeling the other out to understand how things have changed and how they must adapt."
The expectation of another challenging holiday season isn't new to retailers, who have been experiencing a pullback in consumer spending all year long, Ms. Mullin said.
The federation said it will be a season filled with the "serious bargain hunter" and predicted deep discounts to entice shoppers through the door.
Sales have already begun. More than a third of Americans start their Christmas shopping prior to Halloween, according to the .
Discounters and department stores led the way in destinations for consumers in the holiday survey from the federation.
TJX Companies Inc., which runs off-price Marshalls and T.J. Maxx stores, has already seen an October sales increase over last year and is predicting store sales to increase 3 to 5 percent in the fourth quarter.
"We believe our great values on great brands are resonating with our loyal customer base and attracting new customers," said Carol Meyrowitz, the CEO of TJX.
Kohls Corp. had such good September sales that it raised its earnings expectation for the holidays.
"People are really paying attention to sales, paying attention to advertisements," Mr. Smith said. He anticipates consumers spreading out their spending and starting early.
Deep discounts are not in his plans, or in Mr. Allen's, though has sales promotions in mind.
"We have been doing a lot more couponing," Mr. Allen said. "Doing more electronic ads, specials on Facebook."
Mr. Smith said he'll lean on the qualities that make his store different than the chains -- better customer service and better quality goods -- but he's also got some marketing tactics.
One is a "stimulus" program for downtown Aiken, a check to customers that they can apply to purchases at other downtown stores. The check will equal the sales tax on a purchase of $200 or more. The idea is to get shoppers to try other stores downtown.
"It is the prettiest mall you'll ever see, with open air and a street down the middle," Mr. Smith said.
Reach Tim Rausch at (706) 823-3352 or timothy.rausch@augustachronicle.com.
BUY EARLY
In anticipation of weak demand, many retailers are scaling back on inventory.
"Once the most popular items are gone, retailers won't have anywhere to get them, so if there was ever a holiday season to buy early, this is it," said Tracy Mullin, CEO of the National Retail Federation.
A LOOK AT THE COMING HOLIDAY SHOPPING
A majority of Americans -- 84 percent of those surveyed -- told marketing firm BIGresearch that the economy has affected their holiday plans and they will spend less.
- Shop at a discount store -- 70 percent
- Shop at a department store -- 55 percent
- Shop over the Internet -- 42 percent
- Be shopping for sales more often -- 55 percent
- Using more coupons -- 41 percent
- Putting up last year's decorations -- 34 percent
Source: National Retail Federation
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