NEW YORK --- After parents cut back on clothes and accessories for children this fall, the retail industry suspects they won't be any more generous by the holidays.
The National Retail Federation, usually bullish about holiday sales, predicts a 1 percent decline in total sales to $437.6 billion for November and December combined. The projection from the world's largest retail trade group comes amid forecasts that U.S. retailers saw a key measure of sales drop in September for the 13th month in a row.
The federation is less optimistic this year than other groups offering holiday sales forecasts.
"We just don't see a sharp turnaround in consumer sentiment and spending until employment and income look a lot better," said Rosalind Wells, the group's chief economist. "Shoppers are going to remain very frugal."
The group's figures exclude sales from restaurants, gasoline, autos and online business; they include low-price retailers, department stores, grocery stores and specialty stores.
Last year, the group issued a 2.2 percent growth forecast in mid-September, just as the financial meltdown ballooned. It decided not to offer a reduced estimate because the spending climate was deteriorating so quickly that forecasters couldn't be accurate. The industry ended up having the weakest holiday season -- when compared with the previous year -- since at least 1967, when the U.S. Commerce Department started collecting retail sales data.
So far, holiday 2009 forecasts have a wide range. On the low end, Wells Fargo senior economist Mark Vitner predicts a 3.5 percent decline; at the top end, Deloitte Research and TNS Retail Forward predict sales will be the same as last year.
Last fall's steep and swift spending drop came too late for retailers to cut their inventory or orders, which left them with no option but to steeply discount the piles merchandise already headed for their stores. Analysts expect stores won't be in the same panic mode this year because they have cut inventory, but there still will be generous deals.
NEW YORK --- With even super-affluent shoppers tightening their Gucci belts, luxury retailer Neiman Marcus Group Inc. unveiled its Christmas Book on Tuesday with a nod to this new frugality.
Almost 50 percent of the gifts in the catalog's 83rd edition cost less than $250.
"Tokens of affection don't have to be extravagant to be brilliantly received," the book's introduction imparts.
Items new this year include $75 plaid stockings, $235 Italian wool scarves, $100 Ugg slippers, $175 cases for iPhones and $250 Ralph Lauren rain boots.
The million-dollar gifts of past years are gone. The most expensive is a sports aircraft for two. For $250,000, it flies below 10,000 feet and comes with a trailer for fast loading from water or land.
There are also limited-edition $105,000 Jaguars, motorcycles for $73,000 and a $25,000 "Cupcake Car" custom-made of colorful fabric, wood and sheet metal and powered by a 24-volt electric motor. For "green" shoppers, there's an eco-friendly chandelier made of 366 plastic bottles rescued from the landfill. Yours for just $12,000.
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