While trainer Jim Jerkins and foot specialist Ian McKinlay were battling with a quarter crack in the right front hoof of Quality Road last weekend, trainer Todd Pletcher must have been sitting on the edge of his seat. If the foot could not be cured to the point that Jerkens' colt could run in the Derby, Pletcher's Join in the Dance would have the opportunity to live up to his name.
The result was good for Pletcher and bad for Jerkens.
Quality Road, who was broken and trained in Aiken by Legacy Stable's Ron Stevens, was declared out and Pletcher derived benefit not only by seeing the conqueror of his Dunkirk in the Florida Derby fall by the wayside, but now has the opportunity to control the pace with Join in the Dance.
Join the Dance likes to heat things up early. In five of his eight starts, Pletcher's colt has had the lead at the first call and has been responsible for half-mile fractions as quick as 44.4 seconds. No one expects Join in the Dance to go that fast this afternoon, but a first half in 46 seconds certainly seems possible.
Before Pletcher's colt joined the dance, the anticipated pace setter was Regal Ransom, one of two entrants from Dubai.
While the colt has some speed, it was widely expected that his rider, Alan Garcia, would try to slow the pace down, perhaps aiming for a half in 48 seconds or just under.
The effect of these contrasting scenarios on the chances of the contenders is considerable. I Want Revenge, the probable favorite, and Pioneerof the Nile and Friesan Fire are stalkers, which race close to the pace. They are comfortable with first halves in 48 seconds or more.
The prime beneficiary of all this is Pletcher's Dunkirk, a closer that will be coming from far back in the pack. Nothing suits a horse like a fast pace that softens up the front-runners and the stalkers. Dunkirk may not be seasoned enough to win this Derby - he has only three lifetime starts - but he should certainly be comfortable with the way the race figures to be run.
Past winners
2008 - Big Brown
2007 - Street Sense
2006 - Barbaro
2005 - Giacomo
2004 - Smarty Jones
2003 - Funny Cide
2002 - War Emblem
2001 - Monarchos
2000 - Fusaichi Pegasus
1999 - Charismatic
1998 - Real Quiet
1997 - Silver Charm
1996 - Grindstone
1995 - Thunder Gulch
1994 - Go for Gin
1993 - Sea Hero
1992 - Lil E. Tee
1991 - Strike the Gold
1990 - Unbridled
1989 - Sunday Silence
1988 - Winning Colors
1987 - Alysheba
1986 - Ferdinand
1985 - Spend A Buck
1984 - Swale
1983 - Sunny's Halo
1982 - Gato Del Sol
1981 - Pleasant Colony
1980 - Genuine Risk
1979 - Spectacular Bid
1978 - Affirmed
1977 - Seattle Slew
1976 - Bold Forbes
1975 - Foolish Pleasure
1974 - Cannonade
1973 - Secretariat
1972 - Riva Ridge
1971 - Canonero II
1970 - Dust Commander
1969 - Majestic Prince
1968 - Forward Pass
1967 - Proud Clarion
1966 - Kauai King
1965 - Lucky Debonair
1964 - Northern Dancer
1963 - Chateaugay
1962 - Decidedly
1961 - Carry Back
1960 - Venetian Way
1959 - Tomy Lee
1958 - Tim Tam
1957 - Iron Liege
1956 - Needles
1955 - Swaps
1954 - Determine
1953 - Dark Star
1952 - Hill Gail
1951 - Count Turf
1950 - Middleground
1949 - Ponder
1948 - Citation
1947 - Jet Pilot
1946 - Assault
1945 - Hoop, Jr.
1944 - Pensive
1943 - Count Fleet
1942 - Shut Out
1941 - Whirlaway
1940 - Gallahadion
1939 - Johnstown
1938 - Lawrin
1937 - War Admiral
1936 - Bold Venture
1935 - Omaha
1934 - Cavalcade
1933 - Brokers Tip
1932 - Burgoo King
1931 - Twenty Grand
1930 - Gallant Fox
1929 - Clyde Van Dusen
1928 - Reigh Count
1927 - Whiskery
1926 - Bubbling Over
1925 - Flying Ebony
1924 - Black Gold
1923 - Zev
1922 - Morvich
1921 - Behave Yourself
1920 - Paul Jones
1919 - Sir Barton
1918 - Exterminator
1917 - Omar Khayyam
1916 - George Smith
1915 - Regret
1914 - Old Rosebud
1913 - Donerail
1912 - Worth
1911 - Meridan
1910 - Donau
1909 - Wintergreen
1908 - Stone Street
1907 - Pink Star
1906 - Sir Huon
1905 - Agile
1904 - Elwood
1903 - Judge Himes
1902 - Alan-a-Dale
1901 - His Eminence
1900 - Lieut. Gibson
1899 - Manuel
1898 - Plaudit
1897 - Typhoon II
1896 - Ben Brush
1895 - Halma
1894 - Chant
1893 - Lookout
1892 - Azra
1891 - Kingman
1890 - Riley
1889 - Spokane
1888 - MacBeth II
1887 - Montrose
1886 - Ben Ali
1885 - Joe Cotton
1884 - Buchanan
1883 - Leonatus
1882 - Apollo
1881 - Hindoo
1880 - Fonso
1879 - Lord Murphy
1878 - Day Star
1877 - Baden Baden
1876 - Vagrant
1875 - Aristides
