News Analysis: Cagle's withdrawal stirs up elections in multiple ways
By Walter C. Jones| Morris News Service
Monday, April 20, 2009

ATLANTA --- Casey Cagle's decision to drop down from next year's governor's race to seek re-election as lieutenant governor shook up the plans of his rivals for the gubernatorial nomination.

The first to come to mind are the other Republicans vying for a chance to carry the standard. Insurance Commissioner John Oxendine and Secretary of State Karen Handel would likely have found their own niche by trumpeting their experience as statewide elected officials, his strength being how long he's been in office, hers being her reputation as a cost cutter.

Mr. Oxendine is staking a claim on Mr. Cagle's supporters. He issued a news release Friday saying he had gotten more than $120,000 in pledges and donations from former Cagle givers.

Mr. Cagle's departure also changes the strategic equation for Democrats.

As the presiding officer in the Senate, he would have been made to defend every unpopular vote in that chamber. And he would have had to defend against charges of ineffectiveness for the popular measures that stalled in the House.

The three announced Democrats have been around the Capitol longer than Mr. Oxendine and Ms. Handel. DuBose Porter has been in the Legislature more than a quarter-century. Thurbert Baker has been attorney general 12 years and was in the House eight years before that. David Poythress has been a secretary of state and served two terms as labor commissioner.

In a lot of ways, Mr. Cagle was enough of an opposite to the Democrats to have made a good opponent, giving the voters a clear choice. In such a conservative state -- and one in which Republican candidates are going to be sprinting to the right during their primary -- Democrats could have a strategic disadvantage without governance issues or scandals to attack.

The challenge for the remaining candidates of both parties is to set up strategic dichotomies. They want to force voters to make a choice because they know voters who lack strong feelings will stay home or support the incumbent's surrogate -- which is probably what Ms. Handel is banking on.

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