Staff Writer
Numbers don't lie, goes the old saying.
They don't always tell the whole story, either.
The most recent U.S. Census data on Richmond County is a case in point.
Population estimates for 2008 show the county is nearing the high mark it enjoyed when the last census was taken. After those 2000 numbers were certified, Augusta's population had grown to nearly 200,000 -- 199,775 to be exact.
But mid-decade population estimates suggested thousands were vacating the county, many of whom, according to data and anecdotal evidence, relocated in neighboring Columbia -- and to a lesser degree -- Aiken counties. However, the Census Bureau is now reporting that Richmond County's population has rebounded to 199,486 -- only 289 fewer than the amount it had at the start of this decade.
This is where the numbers don't give a full accounting. While the county might have regained what it lost in population since 2000, it isn't because people suddenly decided they wanted to move to the Garden City.
In the nine-year period from April 1, 2000, to July 1, 2008, an estimated 9,922 more people left Richmond County than moved in, the third highest negative net migration in Georgia during that time. Only DeKalb (18,827) and Liberty (11,706) had a higher negative amount among the state's 159 counties.
The only thing that offset Richmond County's loss of residents was that the number of births far surpassed deaths. There were 26,399 births in the nine-year period compared to 15,682 deaths, giving Augusta a natural population increase of 10,717.
"Population changes three ways. Either you're born, you die or you move," said Doug Bachtel, a longtime demographer with the College of Family and Consumer Sciences, Housing and Demographics Research Center at the University of Georgia. "The thing is, when you have all of your growth through natural increase and none of it through net migration, it basically means that people are leaving Richmond County and are not attracted to the area."
Unlike Augusta, Columbia and Aiken counties saw growth fueled by people moving into them. In Columbia, 72 percent of its population increase of 21,340 in the past nine years is because of migration. Seventy-five percent of Aiken's overall growth -- 11,515 -- is attributable to the same.
For Richmond County, its natural population increase touches on a sensitive topic -- the majority of the births are to unwed mothers. According to data collected from 1999 to 2006 by the research center, 55 out of every 100 children born in Richmond County were to unmarried women.
By comparison, 22 out of every 100 births in Columbia County were to unwed mothers during that period.
A county with a high percentage of its children born out of wedlock typically means an increased need for social services that residents have to pay for, Mr. Bachtel said. Those counties also usually have a higher poverty level.
Richmond County's rate of 21 percent was higher than Columbia's (8.6 percent) and Aiken's (15 percent) in 2007, the latest year surveyed.
"Those kids tend to be mired in poverty. Once that spiral of decline starts, it's real, real hard to stop," Mr. Bachtel said. "You got to have, like, a total community-wide effort under way to stop it."
About 43 percent of those who left Richmond County stayed in Georgia. Those who left made more on average -- nearly $35,000 -- than those who moved in -- $29,000, according to 2007 tax return data compiled by the research center.
Of Columbia County's newcomers, 48 percent came from elsewhere in the state and were more affluent. The average income of those who moved to Columbia County was $53,000; those who left averaged $49,000 in income.
Reach Mike Wynn at (706) 823-3218 or mike.wynn@augustachronicle.com.
MIGRATION IN NEIGHBORING COUNTIES
Richmond County is estimated to have lost nearly 10,000 more residents than it gained from April 1, 2000, to July 1, 2008, the third highest amount in Georgia. Neighboring counties of Aiken and Columbia saw increases in net migration during that nine-year period.
|
Richmond |
Columbia |
Aiken |
Burke |
McDuffie |
| Domestic migration |
(-)10,075 |
14,658 |
7,435 |
(-)653 |
(-)114 |
| Int'l migration |
153 |
643 |
1,213 |
33 |
28 |
| Net migration |
(-)9,992 |
15,301 |
8,648 |
(-)620 |
(-)86 |
COMMON MIGRATION TERMS
Migration: Commonly defined as moves that cross jurisdictional boundaries.
In-migration: Migration into an area during a given period.
Domestic migration: In the United States, this term generally refers to movement from one state to another.
International migration: This occurs when persons cross state boundaries and stay in the host state for some minimum length of time.
Out-migration: Migration out of an area during a given period.
Net Migration: The difference between in-migration and out-migration during a given period. A positive net, or net in-migration, indicates that more migrants entered the area than left it during that period. A negative net, or net out-migration, means that more migrants left the area than entered it.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
