ATLANTA --- Unemployment in Georgia will rise over the next two years as recession hits the national and state economies, according to a Georgia State University economist's forecast released Wednesday.

The state's jobless rate will increase to 7.5 percent in 2009 and rise to 8 percent in 2010, predicts Rajeev Dhawan, director of the GSU Economic Forecasting Center.

In 2009, the forecast is for a 2.6 percent decline in jobs statewide and 7.6 percent decline nationally.

Locally, unemployment among metro Brunswick's 53,000-person workforce rose to 5.9 percent in September, up two percentage points from the year prior, according to the state Department of Labor.

Education and health is the only employment sector that is forecast to add jobs in coming years, according to the forecast. Health jobs will gradually increase to 4 percent growth by 2010, and education job growth will fall from 2.1 percent in 2009 to 1.6 percent in 2010, the forecast said.

A turnaround in job losses could come after 2010, but the pace of that resurgence will depend on recovery of the financial sector, whose credit lines "grease the economy's wheels," Mr. Dhawan said.

"Given the expectations of a recession in the U.S. and increasing numbers of job losses and bankruptcy filings in Georgia, combined with the closing of GM's (Doraville plant) and the merger of two of the state's largest employers, Delta (with Northwest) and Wachovia (with Wells Fargo), we expect significant layoffs in the state," he said. Mr. Dhawan said it could be 2011 before substantial recovery returns.

Holiday shopping could be the "last hope" for retailers struggling to stock inventories, he said. Those that see growth in sales might fare well, but those that don't might be pushed to the brink, he said.

While local sales tax collections fell by single digits in many counties, Glynn County's collections grew 4.4 percent between October 2007 and October 2008, the most recent date available. But that is a 9.4 percent decrease from October 2006 collections.

Reach Jake Armstrong at (404) 589-8424 or jake.armstrong@morris.com.