The numbers to watch

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Polls are one thing.

The Electoral College is the only thing.

Recent national polls say the presidential race is ultra-close. But the number that counts is electoral votes: Whoever gets 270 wins the White House.

That race -- the one that counts -- is nearly tied as well: Polling firm Rasmussen Reports says Democrat Barack Obama has about 193 electoral votes in hand right now, while Republican John McCain has about 183.

That includes states that are either strongly in one camp or the other, as well as states that are said to be leaning one way or the other.

Even more significant is the trend line: Rasmussen says previous totals had Obama at 210 electoral votes and McCain with 165 -- meaning McCain has closed the gap significantly.

Rasmussen only lists three states as toss-ups: Colorado, Virginia and Nevada. But most observers feel other swing states include Florida, Missouri and Ohio (which Rasmussen has in McCain's total) and Michigan and Pennsylvania (which Rasmussen says is leaning Obama's way). So anything could happen.

But as interesting as the national polls are, this is not technically a national election: It's the election of a president by the states.

The trend lines in the states are interesting too. According to Rasmussen -- which classifies states as "toss up" and "safe," "likely" or merely "leaning" for either Republican or Democrat -- here's the most recent major movement among states, with their number of electoral votes:

- Ohio (20) -- moved from Toss-up to Leans Republican

- North Carolina (15) -- moved from Leans Republican to Likely Republican

- Wisconsin (10) -- moved from Likely Democratic to Leans Democratic.

- Colorado (9) -- moved from Leans Democratic to Toss-Up

- Oregon (7) -- moved from Likely Democratic to Leans Democratic

- South Dakota (3) -- moved from Leans Republican to Likely Republican

The trend lines are troubling for Obama, in that in each case the trend was either toward toss-up or toward McCain.

These will be the important numbers to watch as the fall campaign gets into high gear.

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Craig Spinks
817
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Craig Spinks 09/08/08 - 02:10 am
0
0
Will Bill aid Barack in

Will Bill aid Barack in blocking Hillary's path to 1600 Pennsylvania?

HTN007
19
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HTN007 09/08/08 - 04:59 am
0
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And the debates, especially

And the debates, especially Palin vs Biden, will be pivotal. In fact, maybe there should be 2 VP debates this election, instead of the usual one?

patriciathomas
42
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patriciathomas 09/08/08 - 06:22 am
0
0
The more people learn about

The more people learn about Obama and his record, the less likely they are to vote for him. Race will only carry him so far. Now that people are beginning to see his vision for America is socialism, he's not so attractive. The next 8 weeks will tell the tale.

christian134
1
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christian134 09/08/08 - 06:45 am
0
0
Now that the media hoopla

Now that the media hoopla over their Golden Boy has neared the end of it's "brouhaha" hopefully the people of this great nation will look to someone of substance and leadership instead of "trend"...This nation has not seen anything of this chaotic three-ring circus in politics ever at least not made up of this extreme foolish characteristics...We need a sound leadership in this country with God at the helm to lead us back to a foundation we were built upon...Obama/Biden or more to truth Biden/Obama is not now or ever will be the path to healing, prosperity and unity.

jsterett
0
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jsterett 09/08/08 - 07:13 am
0
0
Biden? Who's that? I

Biden? Who's that? I remember hearing that name during the Democrats convention but noting since then.

jsterett
0
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jsterett 09/08/08 - 07:30 am
0
0
In an honest comparison of

In an honest comparison of the legislative accomplishments of the two presidential candidates B.Ho is nothing compared to McCain. Obama's strength is in his ideological base of mind-numbed liberals, socialists, homosexual activists and black racists. Obama's campaign has been vague and filled with rhetoric and promises because that is all he has to offer while McCain can point to years of demonstrated leadership.

pofwe
5
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pofwe 09/08/08 - 07:46 am
0
0
The majority of voters,

The majority of voters, (white people), ain't gonna elect no-unqualified, shady, prima donna, flash-in-the-pan, upward mobility aspirer, terrorist monger, questionable religious believer, opportunist; ... because he wrote a book and speaks eloquently to the office of the POTUS!!! Republican landslide!! You'll see.

I4PUTT
5
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I4PUTT 09/08/08 - 08:14 am
0
0
The only numbers that matter,

The only numbers that matter, 11-04-08. This may be a close one but I believe a lot will be learned through this process. I hope this has energized both parties and we will no longer see these elections determined by 20% of the eligible voters.

GR-10
0
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GR-10 09/08/08 - 08:23 am
0
0
Did Democracy Die in St.

Did Democracy Die in St. Paul?

http://www.ireport.com/docs/DOC-78031
response from a friend in St Paul.....

It's so true.

I have never seen so many policemen and women, packs of people dressed in dark blue which I assume were riot police, men in suits -- It was the most incredible thing I have ever seen. All of downtown Saint Paul was locked down with the buses, the police, a long row of white suvs -- apparently one of them carried an important person like Laura Bush, so they go in a group so you don't know which one is the one. It was amazing -- there seemed to be more police than actual citizens. Scary. It was like living in a police state for awhile. A group calling themselves Anarchist threw bleach and urine. Teenagers mostly. Many peaceful protesters too. People against the war. Lawyers with the ACLU were there to represent people. People were stopped constantly by cops with dark glasses. Impossible to get in or out of Saint Paul - people who took buses had to walk a mile to even get to one.

HYPOCRITES 08
7
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HYPOCRITES 08 09/08/08 - 08:29 am
0
0
Tick,Tock,Tick,Tock,Tick,Tock

Tick,Tock,Tick,Tock,Tick,Tock,Tick,Tock,Tick,Tock.............

ibewalkintamemphis
0
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ibewalkintamemphis 09/08/08 - 08:45 am
0
0
GR-10 Guess you didn't notice

GR-10 Guess you didn't notice all that at Denver??? Of course not, ha!

JesusIsComing
2
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JesusIsComing 09/08/08 - 08:48 am
0
0
GR-10 - Yes, it's called a

GR-10 - Yes, it's called a plot to kidnap Republican convention delegates - the police frown on such behavior and react accordingly.

shivas
2
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shivas 09/08/08 - 09:17 am
0
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Unfortunately, many people

Unfortunately, many people believe such as pofwe, and I do believe that will be Obama's downfall. Just listening to my friends has convinced me that their angst towards Obama is deeply rooted in their inability to vote for a black man. I have never seen so many people who are very nice get so emotionally charged over one man, and continue to say such ignorant things about him being a Muslim. Like our Representative Westmoreland says when describing Obama as "uppity." As if, it's not OK for him to have intelligence and an ego as all politicians do. Because he is black, "he should know his place." Very sad, but it is the reality still of many in this country.

patriciathomas
42
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patriciathomas 09/08/08 - 09:54 am
0
0
Shivas, since many blacks

Shivas, since many blacks will vote because of Obama's color (remember Oprah?) and many guilty whites will do the same, I feel the offset for those that won't vote for him because of color is about equal. Still, his message isn't very endearing to the employed. I think Thomas Sowell would have almost no problem with people not voting for him because of color, but I don't think he'd get a single vote from the socialist left and it would be easy to attach any "reasoning" to the unbridled bile that would be spewed at him.

dani
12
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dani 09/08/08 - 10:05 am
0
0
shivas...When I was growing

shivas...When I was growing up 'uppity' was used to describe a person, usually a woman, who thought she was better than her neighbors because she had a bigger car or house. I never knew that blacks were sensitive to the word. Toughen up a little bit and stop the whining.

convertedsoutherner
2
Points
convertedsoutherner 09/08/08 - 10:22 am
0
0
As has been said before, it

As has been said before, it will all come down to this. If NOobama doesn't win, it will be blamed on his race not his socialist plans for this country, his wanting to take from those evil working people to give to the less performing and him being less knowledgeable than McCain. Watch his off-the-cuff interviews and you can see how he evades and avoids.

factchecker
0
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factchecker 09/08/08 - 10:40 am
0
0
We can debate McCain/Palin

We can debate McCain/Palin and Obama/Biden all day and night and people are not going to change their minds here. This is the last thing I am going to submit on the Presidential election until it is over. Please watch it. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TG4fe9GlWS8

justus4
103
Points
justus4 09/08/08 - 11:36 am
0
0
The article states the facts
Unpublished

The article states the facts about the electorial college, but then speculates about whom the numbers will affect i.e "trend lines are troubling for Obama" Ha! Thats only wishful thinking or dishonesty in print, which is completely obvious throughout this paper. Much like slavery, the Southern Strategy has worked for over forty yrs, but just like slavery it's end is near and the majority population is whistling Dixie and looking back. The jig is up...

owensjef2
0
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owensjef2 09/08/08 - 11:54 am
0
0
Pat please stop with that

Pat please stop with that stupid nonsense, Republicans have chose to ignore blacks since LBJ passed the voting rights act. Nixon, Reagan , Ford, Bush 41 and 43, Bob Dole, etc . have never even tried to appeal to The black Community and John McCain is no different. If Alan Keys were running against Hilliary I bet he wouldn't get many black votes and he is black so please stop race baiting.

owensjef2
0
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owensjef2 09/08/08 - 11:56 am
0
0
Matter of Fact some of you

Matter of Fact some of you Whites would sneak and vote for Hilliary. HEHE

owensjef2
0
Points
owensjef2 09/08/08 - 12:04 pm
0
0
Po fwe enjoy another 8 years

Po fwe enjoy another 8 years of destruction by the Republicans in the White House.

sjgraci
2
Points
sjgraci 09/08/08 - 12:07 pm
0
0
Enjoy the bounce. Next week

Enjoy the bounce. Next week you won't be singing the same tune.

convertedsoutherner
2
Points
convertedsoutherner 09/08/08 - 12:19 pm
0
0
I guess time, facts and truth

I guess time, facts and truth be told - will tell. No one ever thought that the republicans would get this kind of a bounce and look what happened.

Brad Owens
4583
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Brad Owens 09/08/08 - 12:49 pm
0
0
GR-10, I would support the

GR-10, I would support the police preventing violent demostrators, who intended on hurting people over their political views, at any convention. We have a right to gather peacfully for political reasons but NO ONE has the right to use violence to dirupt these gatherings on either side.

christian134
1
Points
christian134 09/08/08 - 01:12 pm
0
0
Owensjef please make

Owensjef please make sense...justus it pleases me to finally hear you say slavery is at an end...Just took you some to figure it out...

patriciathomas
42
Points
patriciathomas 09/08/08 - 01:21 pm
0
0
oj2, I take it Thomas

oj2, I take it Thomas Sowell's name didn't impress you. Alan Keys is very popular among informed conservatives, but he too dislikes socialism, so I guess he's never reached out to the black community either. No race baiting involved. I actually sympathize with what's been done to the black American (in general) with all of the subsidy programs. There's a reason they're called "Democrat voter breeding programs".

patriciathomas
42
Points
patriciathomas 09/08/08 - 01:22 pm
0
0
Obama will be on O'riley

Obama will be on O'riley tonight at 8:00p. The interview will continue on Tuesday and Wednesday.

RichmondCountyResident1
29
Points
RichmondCountyResident1 09/08/08 - 01:34 pm
0
0
Well put Shivas, they

Well put Shivas, they (bigots) aren't fooling anyone. POFWE,is a poor example of decency, racist loser.When was the last time African Americans, voted enmasse for a Republican? We have always voted ninety percent or better, for a Democrat. So why is it racial now, to vote for Senator Obama, a Democrat? The Republicans are just desperate to hold to any hope they can get. When the voters see what Sarah Palin stands for, it's over. That's why people like Gloria Steinem and other true feminist, will rally against her and Senator McCain. OBAMA/BIDEN 08 & 12!!!!!

Rozzie2003
5
Points
Rozzie2003 09/08/08 - 01:37 pm
0
0
4 more years of a Republican

4 more years of a Republican Administration will destroy our great nation. My Friends, read the facts. The country is declining because we have failed to solve our problems and don't discuss the real issues but get stuck with social issues that are distractions. WAKE UP PEOPLE! WAKE UP! We are losing our country and many other countries are rising up to take our place. Don't let the Pundits fool you again. Karl Rove has trained one of his buddies to fool southern people. Karl says in closed quarters, southern white people are gullible and can be fooled easily. Talk about , religion, guns, abortion, welfare, the flag and armed services, and you win the PICKUP BOYS! I didn't say this, Karl Rove said it..

patriciathomas
42
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patriciathomas 09/08/08 - 01:40 pm
0
0
You're right RCR. Most black

You're right RCR. Most black Americans refuse to even look off the plantation, let alone wander off the plantation. Of course, the deep thinking and well informed 10% are all Uncle Tom's.

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