Understanding complicated China through the Rule of 13
By Perry Smith| Guest Columnist
Sunday, June 22, 2008

With the Summer Olympics less than two months away, there is growing interest in the great colossus that is China. In addition, American policy toward China should become, quite soon, a major issue in the upcoming presidential debates between Sens. John McCain and Barack Obama.

On my first visit to China in 1985, for two weeks I was an official guest of the People's Liberation Army. The Chinese were very anxious at that time to create warm relations with the U.S. military so they opened the doors to almost every place I wanted to examine. Since that visit, I have had an intense interest in this emerging power.

I ENCOURAGE everyone to visit China in the next few years. Since this will not be possible for many, here is an easy way to grasp the complexities that define China. A rough understanding of the issues relating to the rise of China can be gained through the use of the Rule of 13.

- China has 13 hundred million people (1.3 billion). The United States has slightly more than 300 million. Feeding, clothing, housing and transporting a population of this size is already a huge problem -- and it will only get worse as the rising expectations of the Chinese people lead to a demand for more and better services from their government. Can you imagine the traffic in Atlanta if suddenly it had four times as many people?

- Thirteen percent of the land in China is arable -- suitable for crop production. The rest of China is deserts and mountains. America, which is about the same size as China, has more than twice as much land where food can be grown (to feed less than one-quarter of China's population). With so much of China's good farmland being paved over for new roads, cities, railroad, airports, etc., the Chinese food shortages today can only get worse.

- The speeds of the highways and byways of China are 13 miles per hour. Hence, all of China is in a traffic jam most of the time. The problem is not the speed limit; it is the infernal, maddening traffic. This, in another area where a problem is getting worse every day as more and more Chinese buy inexpensive automobiles. By the year 2011, the Chinese will buy 13 million vehicles. The massive road-building program is helping in some areas, but overall traffic problem will remain for many decades in the future.

- Manufacturing output over the course of the past 25 years has been increasing by 13 percent per year. If this phenomenal growth continues unabated, it may seem quite scary. However, as developed nations move into the postindustrial age, the best measurement of economic health is not manufacturing, but services. The United States, Europe and India all have a big lead over China in this area.

- Thirteen percent of the Chinese people (about 170 million people) earn less than $1 per day. Extreme poverty, which was once a huge problem for China, still remains a major concern to national, regional and local leaders.

- China has foreign reserves of about 13 hundred billion dollars ($1.3 trillion) -- by far the largest pot of money of any nation in the world. In fact, China finances a large part of American public debt. As the value of the dollar sinks, the Chinese lose out since their foreign reserves, which are largely in dollars, have less real value.

- In rough terms, China spends about 13 percent for national defense and homeland security of what the United States spends. China has no "blue-water" navy, and very little in the way of strategic airlift (big cargo aircraft), long-range bombers, or air refueling tankers. Hence, China today would have a difficult time engaging in successful warfare outside the immediate East Asia region. Until China creates a strategic, long-range military with an ability to project military power worldwide, China cannot be a superpower in the classic sense.

HOW MIGHT this all be summarized? The Marxist-Leninist government of China faces other major problems now and in the future: rampant corruption at all levels, huge environmental problems, water shortages, a general breakdown in health coverage and a shortage of infrastructure (ports, highways, canals and airports). Despite all of these problems, China has already become the second-most important nation in the world. Which nations are most worried about the rise of China? India, Japan, Indonesia and South Korea. These concerns have led to the closest relationship between America and India in history -- a big plus for both of our countries.

How can you keep up with this rapidly growing and changing nation? Books are not of much value because by the time they are published they are largely out of date. The Economist magazine may be the best source of up to date and objective analysis.

(The writer is a retired U.S. Air Force major general, and the president of Visionary Leadership Ltd. His books include Rules and Tools for Leaders and Assignment Pentagon .)

From the Sunday, June 22, 2008 edition of the Augusta Chronicle
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