Experts say state's jobless rates aren't cause for worry

AIKEN --- Michael Norwood hasn't been able to turn his heat on all winter.

When asked how he's been able to deal with the cold, he says he's been "sleeping like an eskimo," bundled up as much as he can.

But he can't afford the heat, he said, not since he lost his Avondale Mills job.

He's been looking for work since July 2006, taking odd jobs here and there to help pay his bills.

"I am very worried," the 29-year-old Clearwater man said. "As hard as it is right now, if it gets any worse, you're going to see a lot more people without jobs and no one to hire them."

Economists can't say the country is in a recession, but the employment outlook hasn't exactly been encouraging.

At the end of January, the last month for which unemployment statistics are available, South Carolina's unemployment rate was at 6.1 percent, down only a fraction of a percentage point from December.

Aiken County fared better, with 5.7 percent of its 74,640-member work force out of jobs.

Jobless workers -- or even those fearing potential layoffs -- shouldn't worry just yet, said Paulo Guimaraes, an associate professor in the business school at the University of South Carolina. Although the economic outlook "does not look rosy," he said, "there are no reasons to believe that unemployment will increase."

Mr. Guimaraes, who is in the college's division of research, said he hopes two recent federal moves will help "stimulate the economy and avoid it getting worse." But it might take a couple of months before lower interest rates and the economic stimulus checks being mailed in May will show any effects, he said.

Although South Carolina's jobless rate has increased slightly, he said, it has been "nothing like they've gone up on past recessions."

Mr. Guimaraes said there's no hard proof the country has slid into a recession, and national experts have been split over whether the jobless claims are evidence of that.

According to the employment commission, the only sectors that did not lose jobs in January were education and health services.

Mr. Guimaraes said that though most companies are not cutting positions, they're not hiring, either.

Adding to the economic uncertainty, he said, is that the housing market is not picking up and retail sales are down.

But he believes South Carolina is faring better than other states.

"I have no reason to be pessimistic," he said.

Doug Woodward, a professor in USC's business college and director of its division of research, said South Carolina's jobless rate is worse than Georgia's because "we've got some consistent problems."

The answer, he said, is that Georgia -- and North Carolina -- have "dynamic cities with diverse economies that have been able to absorb their labor markets in a way we haven't been able to do."

South Carolina has also lost many manufacturing jobs, he said, and the state just hasn't had the job growth its neighbors have.

Nationally, the U.S. Department of Labor reported Thursday that new unemployment claims were higher than expected last week and are the highest since 2005.

In the department's most recent rankings, South Carolina had the nation's fourth-highest unemployment rate, behind Michigan, Alaska and Washington, D.C.

Reach Sandi Martin at (803) 648-1395, ext. 111, or sandi.martin@augustachronicle.com.

* Figures not available