After super Tuesday most of the chafe will have been gleaned and we'll only have to decide between 2 or 3 candidates from each party. The surprises will be fewer and farther between.
It wasn't quite "Dewey Defeats Truman." But, wow, did the pollsters get it wrong in New Hampshire!
What happened?
A number of things, probably.
First, there was Hillary Clinton's Hallmark moment, where she teared up and choked up describing how motivated she is to pursue her quest.
Critics claim the moment was calculated -- and remember, this is a campaign that several months ago was planting questions among audience members. Still, it's quite possible she was tired and dispirited by the polls and revealed some real vulnerability and humanity.
"Hillary Clinton shows some emotion and (people) say, wait a minute, the ice queen is melting and there is a real person inside," said Fox News and National Public Radio contributor Juan Williams.
Meanwhile, there's the unknowable: which party's primary New Hampshire's voters would vote in. Since they're able to vote in either, there was no way for pollsters to really determine if voters would flock to independent voter magnets Barack Obama on the Democratic side or John McCain on the Republican side.
And reports indicate large numbers of voters made their minds up within the last few hours of the election -- perhaps swayed by Hillary's tears or the chance to prove the constant drumbeat of the polls wrong.
Ah, the polls.
It's quite possible that poll-weary New Hampshire voters either misled pollsters -- or just chose to confound them. Pollsters aren't trying to tell people how to vote; they're merely taking the temperature of the electorate. Still, fiercely independent voters might feel put-upon, and resent any appearance that anyone is trying to put them in a box.
Whatever happened, the race tightened in both parties. And by last count, there were something close to 48 states left to weigh in.
The results in New Hampshire only make South Carolina's first-in-the-South primary (Jan. 19 for Republicans, Jan. 26 for Democrats) all the more important. And it's likely both races for the White House will still be up in the air Feb. 5, when Super Tuesday sees primaries in two dozen states, including Georgia.
There will be lots of attempts at predicting those outcomes. Some may ring true.
But if we learned anything from New Hampshire, it's that the only poll that counts is the one on election day.
And that the secret ballot is just that.
Secret.
Comments
After super Tuesday most of the chafe will have been gleaned and we'll only have to decide between 2 or 3 candidates from each party. The surprises will be fewer and farther between.
The guys heckling Hillary with "Iron My Shirts" probably helped more than anything else to bring in women voters to support her. Pretty convienient how they picked that particular time and place to show up. Seems just as scripted as her tearing up emotionally. She has the women voters fooled.
Again, everyone trying to make excuses for a Hillary win. Well, here's the truth of why so many Americans support her: 1. She has a strong, presidential presence, 2. She actually talks about solutions rather than points out problems, 3. She connects with the common man and woman unlike the aritocratic right-wing, 4. She is genuine, and imparts this to the voting electorate, and 5. She has a charismatic personality that is hard to ignore. Now, Obama continues to have a great shot at winning this nomination, and it is exciting to watch these 2 dynamic individuals debate real issues concerning this country, rather than the republicans debating who's a real christian and who's the true conservative.
Your pre-coffee posts are always interesting, shivas. What does this one mean?
It's when I am at my best!
I'm trying to remember a primary season many decades ago when a candidate (Edmund Muskie?) got emotional and choked up, and that display cost him the nomination. The voters decided they didn't want a president who cried in public. Have times changed?
The election laws are lax in N.H. You can show up at the polls, register, vote with certain proofs of residency. Information from a professor at Dartmouth said people no one knew, were coming into their towns on buses, registering and voting. I can't contact her right now but I want to see how much i.d is required. I hear a photo id unless it is not available, then other means can be used. (i don't know what this is). If this should happen in Florida, party workers will tear the state apart trying to prove fraud..The reason for an investigation is that all the Republican polls and the John edwards numbers were right on. The only up-side down poll was Obama-Clinton.It would be nice to get it right before it reaches S.C. & Ga. anyhow.
I fail to see how women can support someone who hangs on to a husband when shw is aware of his many infidelities. Raw political ambition?
John Kerry endorses Barak Obama. That ought to do it. As if the Party or the Clinton's will let Obama get anywhere near the Whte House.
Well JACK, why should anyone vote for RUDY? We all know that he does not have ANY infidelities.
Hillary has been planning and running for president since she and her husband left office. You would think more people would question her motives, and seek something new instead of her rehash. She is playing the female card like a champ, but she will hang her constituents out to dry once elected. Women loved her husband too, but I guess she knows that.
man, I'm already tired of the race for the most powerful position in the world. Why is it that suddenly a women AND an african-american both want the office? did someone formally announce that the tradition of all white, male presidents was over? just curious. besides, obama doesn't really look black, he looks about as dark as a white person with a tan.
not I really care much about politics since it does not immediantly affect me as I am still in high school. froggy out.
i'm being speculative.
Shivas.., Huckabee is HARDLY aristocratic. Wouldn't you say that was a slightly STEROTYPICAL statement?
Who thinks Huckabee is aristocratic?, That is funny.
I'll tell you, this is going to be the election that showcases an issue that hasn't really caught fire yet: the ridiculous judiciary that constantly seeks to abrogate to itself a panoply of powers NEVER envisioned by the Founders, or by any sane American. Check out: http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=D8U35BSG0&show_article=1
Now, tell me how this film is any less "artistic" or any more of a "campaign ad" than Fahrenheit 9/11, Dude, where's my country? or any other Michael Moore fantasy...these judges need to understand that they do not control the budgeting process or the executive's bureaucracy. Their only power lies in their credibility, the perception by those who DO, that those who JUDGE are being ethical, reasonable, and acting within the powers specified for them. They have been going further and further down the road of activism for decades, not content with the powers granted to them by the Constitution. They're going to reach a point at which judicial reform, impeachments and rebellious legislators/executives consign them to irrelevance. Very, very stupid...
ok I am skeptical of obama and his muslim educatio in the first place (which may well be not nice of me) but dhis church is the united Church of christ and their 10 point vision really disturbs me. #4 is a congration with a non-negotiable commitment to africa; #10 A congregation working towards economic parity. The kicker is "we are a congregation which is unshamedly Black and unapologetically Christian... "remain true to our native land.: Nowhere on this web site lists a commitment to the USA. Shouldn't the US president be for the US and not Africia. Should our US president be so committed to one race. I believe in equal opportunties for all US citizens; I believe if you are going to make your living in a country you should speak the language of that country, it sort of telling the country up yours and sticking to all the citizens of that country when you make money there; send it somewhere else but disrepect the people by not adopting the language.
obama's church is www.tucc.org check out about us and the mission page. Check it out before your vote.
darth froggy..How many years do you plan to spend in high school.
Gee, maybe they just LIKE Hilary.
oh man..Is it true that their allegiance is to the black race and Africa, and not America and their life here? I asked yesterday about his refusal to pledge allegiance to the U.S. flag, and had my head chopped off. I don't vote Dem anyhow, so there's not much I can do.
Ol Obama, he be pretty sharp!! To "hide" his muslim faith, he joins a racist church whose stated mission is advancement of the black man and allegiance to Africa. Beware, a wolf in sheep's clothing is tapping, tapping at your door!
OK, so what we have on the Democratic side of this election is a choice between a female socialist posing as a middle of the road Democrat, a black muslim or not, but someone who is not totally pro America demonstrated by his own actions, and an ambulance chasing liberal slick hairdo attorney. There are too many on the Republican side to characterize. I get so tired of voting for the lessor of two evils.
obviously only 2 years because I am am sophomore and a straight-A student with a IQ of 127. So go ____ yourself. Fill in the blanks, ___hole. Froggy Out.
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