Wealth of talent complicates first pick for Houston

When Houston lost to San Francisco in its final regular-season game to "earn" the No. 1 draft pick, the assumption was the Texans would take Reggie Bush, the once-in-a-generation running back.

It's not that simple now that Vince Young has declared for the draft following a dazzling performance that brought Texas the national championship. Young is from Houston, Houston is in Texas and a local hero could do wonders for the fans of a team that went 2-14.

Throw in Matt Leinart, Bush's teammate at Southern California, and the Texans are in a bit of a quandary: a do-it all running back and two quarterbacks, one a favorite son.

Don't ask Charley Casserly, Houston's general manager, to commit this early.

Among other things, he still has to find a coach, with the front-runner being Gary Kubiak, the Denver offensive coordinator. Kubiak was a quarterback, so that might become a factor.

Casserly said little after Bush declared Thursday he was leaving Southern Cal.

"All we can say is what has happened here with Reggie Bush and Vince Young declaring, with the addition of Matt Leinart among other players, is that you have a real strong top of the draft," Casserly said. "It means we're going to get a real good player if we keep the pick, and if we trade the pick, we've got certainly a very valuable commodity to trade."

To be fair, no GM in his position would say anything else at this point.

A few things to remember:

1. There are rarely sure things. Remember that in 1998, there were teams that thought Ryan Leaf was a better prospect than Peyton Manning. And that in 1989, Dallas' choice of Troy Aikman at No. 1 was criticized by many who thought the Cowboys should have chosen Tony Mandarich.

2. Houston has a young quarterback in David Carr, who will be 27 in July. He has been sacked more than 200 times in four seasons and has regressed. But indications are that the Texans will pay the $8 million bonus due in March - a recognition that the problems were on the offensive line and a hint that they will select Bush or trade down.

3. For all his college heroics, Young is still a question to NFL scouts because of an odd throwing motion and some uncertain decision-making during his college career. Still, he appears to be a bigger Michael Vick, who can learn the NFL passing game and whose running ability will create numerous problems for opponents.

New Orleans, Tennessee and the New York Jets follow Houston in the draft order.

Consider their needs (a lot) and throw in a few other prospects, including LenDale White, the power half of the running back tandem at Southern Cal.

The Saints and Titans need quarterbacks - Tennessee's Steve McNair wants to come back but has to renegotiate what otherwise would be a salary cap-breaking deal. Sitting and learning from an accomplished veteran would be the perfect situation for a Leinart or Young.

The Jets also would like a QB because Chad Pennington has undergone surgery on his throwing shoulder twice in the past year. But they might want experience rather than youth, and they need both offensive linemen and a running back.

Quick mock draft: Bush to Houston; Leinart to New Orleans; Young to Tennessee; and D'Brickashaw Ferguson, offensive tackle from Virginia to the Jets (unless Houston trades down to get him).

Too easy, so it won't happen that way, especially if Houston owner Bob McNair succumbs to the clamor of the fans.