Originally created 11/10/05

Mayor race hinges on turnout



Augusta mayoral candidate Deke Copenhaver, who came in second in Tuesday's special election and will face first-place finisher interim Mayor Willie Mays in a runoff next month, has an advantage because he won in precincts with the highest voter turnout, local political analysts agree.

And turnout is key.

Mr. Mays finished first with 37 percent of the vote Tuesday to Mr. Copenhaver's 25 percent. But Mr. Copenhaver took 17 of the top 30 precincts with the highest voter turnout. Mr. Mays took 10, and candidates Helen Blocker-Adams and Tommy Boyles took two and one, respectively.

Twenty of those top 30 precincts are majority-white, which also bodes well for Mr. Copenhaver, the analysts say.

"I would say Deke has the advantage going in because he has the high-turnout precincts," said Dr. Ralph Walker, the director of Augusta State University's Research Center. "He has the money. He has the momentum and energy. I thought Willie would get up in the 40 percent range. He's got to be disappointed with 37 percent. That is not a good showing."

Mr. Mays' candidacy is in trouble, Dr. Walker said, because he has run "a lousy campaign," failing to activate his base and excite the voters.

Richmond County Democratic Party Chairman Lowell Greenbaum said the election results show that the party and Mr. Mays are going to have to work very hard to win the Dec. 6 runoff.

"He's going to have to be more visible," Dr. Greenbaum said. "He's been involved as the mayor and as the director of his business, but he now has to come out as a candidate. I think he understands that. We've learned there's no slam dunk. The party is very determined to win this election."

Richmond County Republican Party Chairman Dave Barbee, who supported former Augusta Commissioner Tommy Boyles, said Mr. Copenhaver appears to be in a good position to win.

Mr. Boyles' poor showing of 15 percent and political newcomer Helen Blocker-Adams' unanticipated showing of 23 percent were the big surprises Tuesday.

"I was amazed Tommy Boyles was defeated as badly as he was," Dr. Walker said. "I thought he was strong in south Augusta. They kept telling me he was, that Deke wouldn't get any votes. And he and Helen got all the votes. She's amazing. She collected $17,000 and got 23 percent. Deke got $110,000 and got 25 percent. That's amazing."

Mr. Barbee attributed Mr. Boyles' low vote to his inability to raise the kind of money Mr. Copenhaver did, The Augusta Chronicle's endorsements of Ms. Blocker-Adams, and the public's desire for a new face.

Another key to a December win is who picks up Ms. Blocker-Adams' and Mr. Boyles' voters.

"A bunch of them will stay home," Dr. Walker said. "Deke has the money and energy to get the vote out. and I'm not sure Willie has either. It all depends. Anybody who predicts a runoff is a fool, because who in the world knows who is going to come back to the polls."

But it's almost a tradition in Georgia that the second-place finisher in an election wins in a runoff, Dr. Walker said.

"The people that voted have voted for anybody other than the leader," he said. "The other finisher is almost a dissenting vote for the leader. So you would suspect that a lot of that vote - if they come back to the polls - would come back for Deke. I would think. Like I say, it's foolish to even guess."

Mr. Copenhaver and Mr. Mays have asked Mr. Boyles and Ms. Blocker-Adams to endorse them. Mr. Boyles said he is going to stay out of the race, and Ms. Blocker-Adams said she has not made up her mind. But it doesn't matter, Dr. Walker and Mr. Barbee said, because such endorsements have little or no impact.

"It doesn't make a hill of beans what the candidates say," Mr. Barbee said. "The only way that works is if they go out and start walking and talking for the candidate they endorse."

Meanwhile, incumbent Commissioner Bobby Hankerson on Wednesday asked the Richmond County Board of Elections for a recount in the District 5 race. Mr. Hankerson lost by 12 votes to retired principal Calvin Holland.

Elections Board Executive Director Lynn Bailey said results will be certified Friday and a recount will be early next week.

Reach Sylvia Cooper at (706) 823-3228 or sylvia.cooper@augustachronicle.com.

What's Next:


Voters will return to the polls Dec. 6 for a runoff election to choose between interim Mayor Willie Mays, left, and Deke Copenhaver as the next mayor of Augusta.

TOP TURNOUT


Of the 30 precincts with highest voter turnout, newcomer Deke Copenhaver won 17 and interim Mayor Willie Mays won 10. Local political observers say voter turnout will be a big factor in which candidate wins the Dec. 6 runoff election.


Precinct location Turnout Winner


305 1st Baptist Church of Augusta 50.73% Copenhaver


303 Aquatics Center 48.59% Copenhaver


701 Aldersgate United Methodist Church 48.15% Copenhaver


307 Woodlawn Methodist Church 46.67% Copenhaver


301 Covenant Presbyterian Church 46.23% Copenhaver


107 Julian Smith Casino 42.18% Copenhaver


101 Asbury United Methodist Church 40.95% Copenhaver


108 Covenant Presbyterian Church 39.62% Mays


206 Highland Avenue Fire Station 38.69% Copenhaver


208 Minnick Park 38.18% Mays


203 Mount Calvary Baptist Church 37.89% Mays


204 Asbury United Methodist Church 37.56% Copenhaver


605 VFW Post 649 37.12% Mays


705 St Augustine's Episcopal Church 37.05% Copenhaver


702 St. Mark United Methodist Church 36.60% Copenhaver


808 Cross Creek High School 36.40% Copenhaver


806 Pine Hill Baptist Church 36.29% Copenhaver


805 Southside Baptist Church 36.12% Blocker-Adams


603 Burns Memorial United Methodist Church 36.12% Blocker-Adams


809 McBean Community Center 35.93% Copenhaver


209 Mize Memorial United Methodist Church 35.39% Mays


201 Augusta Deliverance Evangelistic Church 35.06% Mays


708 Whole Life Ministries 34.99% Copenhaver


602 HIS Community Church 34.84% Boyles


104 Eastview Recreation Center 33.92% Mays


501 1st Shiloh Baptist Church 33.54% Mays


406 Jamestown Community Center 33.22% Mays


113 May Park 32.42% Mays


706 Warren Road Recreation Center 32.35% Copenhaver


606 New Horizon Church of God 32.35% Copenhaver