'Doubt' expected to get the best-play Tony

NEW YORK - No "Doubt" about it. The 2005 Tony Award for best play will go to John Patrick Shanley.

The author of "Doubt" already has collected this year's Pulitzer Prize for drama, the New York Drama Critics' Circle Award, the Outer Critics prize and the top Drama Desk award. There's only one trophy left.

Of course, remember last year when all us fearless forecasters were predicting a win for "Wicked" as best musical. And then a little show called "Avenue Q" took prizes for best musical, book and score.

A few upsets can always liven up the Tony telecast June 5 (CBS 9-11 p.m.) with Hugh Jackman back again as the host for a third year.

The prognostications:

The "Doubt" factor. Besides best play, look for Shanley's tale of certainty and suspicion to take a major share of the acting prizes - actress, Cherry Jones; actor, Brian F. O'Byrne; and featured actress, Adriane Lenox. It should also sweep in director Doug Hughes.

Musical. "Monty Python's Spamalot." It would seem to be the logical choice, but when has logic had anything to do with the giving of awards? Still, "Spamalot" is the season's biggest musical hit, has star power in Tim Curry, David Hyde Pierce and Hank Azaria, and ready name recognition from all those rabid Python fans. So it will get enough votes to receive the top musical prize.

Its competitors - "The 25th Annual Putnam County Spelling Bee," "The Light in the Piazza" and "Dirty Rotten Scoundrels" - all have their partisans, but they are likely to divide rather than conquer.

Whether "Spamalot" takes many more Tonys is open to spirited debate, although Mike Nichols should win for his direction and so should Sara Ramirez, in the featured category, for her ripe impersonation of the ultimate musical-theater diva.

Norbert Leo Butz, one of the con men in "Dirty Rotten Scoundrels," would seem to have an iron grip on the actor-musical prize. And his female counterpart, Victoria Clark of "The Light in the Piazza" should win just as easily - and deservedly.

And for book of a musical, Rachel Sheinkin's quirky, funny tale for "Spelling Bee" is a natural for a Tony, as is the show's nasal, uber-nerd, played by Dan Fogler (featured actor-musical).

"The Light in the Piazza" looks and sounds gorgeous. So composer Adam Guettel's rapturous, romantic score is a likely winner, as are its orchestrations by Guettel, Ted Sperling and Bruce Coughlin. The show's sets (Michael Yeargan), costumes (Catherine Zuber) and lighting (Christopher Akerlind) should capture the musical design categories.

One sure winner is comedian Billy Crystal in the special theatrical event category for his autobiographical one-man show, "700 Sundays."

However, the revival-play prize is tough. There are several worthy competitors - "Glengarry Glen Ross," "Twelve Angry Men" and "Who's Afraid of Virginia Woolf?" among them. Look for the crowd-pleasing "Twelve Angry Men" to eek out a victory.

"La Cage aux Folles" should win in the lackluster musical-revival category, and Jerry Mitchell should get affirmation for his athletic choreography for Les Cagelles, his limber chorus of dancers.

"The Pillowman," the biggest competition for "Doubt" in the best-play category, should take at least one award - the featured actor-play category, for Michael Stuhlbarg for his portrayal of a terrifying simpleton.

And finally, there are the play-design categories. Go with the lavish red Chinese restaurant and messy real-estate office Santo Loquasto designed for "Glengarry Glen Ross," Don Holder's evocative lighting for the revival of "A Streetcar Named Desire" and let's root for Jane Greenwood, up for her 15th Tony nomination (without a win) for her costume work on "Who's Afraid of Virginia Woolf?"