Their districts are trending Republican, or their records are under attack, or both.

But when subjected to a broader examination, using cold, hard numbers, Republican prospects don't look nearly as bright.

The redistricting maps drawn by the Legislature's Democratic leaders last year figure to keep in power the party that has controlled the 180-member House and 56-member Senate since Reconstruction.

"We're just trying to come back with 74 (seats)," said House Republican leader Lynn Westmoreland of Sharpsburg. "That's what we left with."

"We'll be lucky to come back with 20 senators," added Eric Johnson of Savannah, the GOP leader in the Senate, where Democrats outnumber Republicans 33-23.

During the redistricting sessions, Democratic mapmakers used the latest computer technology to draw districts based primarily on voting patterns rather than city and county lines.

To minimize Republican strength, GOP voters were packed into a few large districts and Democratic supporters were spread out among many smaller districts.

As a result, many of those Democratic districts are marginal, with "Democratic performance" rates - a number based on crunching the results of a series of elections during the past six years - of 50 to 55 percent.

Including those districts gives the Democrats a huge advantage on the House map, with 110 Democratic-leaning seats to just 70 that lean Republican. In the Senate, 39 seats have Democratic performance rates of 50 percent or better, and 17 lean toward the GOP.

The Republicans' diminished expectations are tough for party stalwarts to swallow. Through most of the 1990s, the GOP made steady gains in the General Assembly, as rapid population growth brought many new residents with Republican voting habits.

Democrats blunted that momentum in 1998 and again two years ago.

But when the 2000 census showed the most dramatic population gains in areas full of Republican voters, GOP hopes were renewed.

"Up until redistricting, because of the growth patterns, they thought 2002 would be the year they'd claim one or both chambers of the Legislature, " said Charles Bullock, a political science professor at the University of Georgia.

"But the Democrats outflanked them with a redistricting plan that was highly partisan."

Still, Republicans are optimistic that they can knock off a few prominent Democratic incumbents.

In South Georgia, Democratic Sen. Van Streat of Nicholls faces a better-funded, experienced Republican in fellow incumbent Sen. Tommie Williams of Lyons. Mr. Streat has been hampered by criminal charges - which were dropped in October for lack of evidence - that he took money to help a convicted murderer.

Other Democratic senators are in tough re-election battles because they voted last year in favor of shrinking the Confederate battle emblem on the state flag. The list includes Sens. Richard Marable of Rome, Rooney Bowen of Cordele and Harold Ragan of Cairo.

Mr. Marable is on thin ice for another reason. Like most of North Georgia outside Atlanta and Athens, his Floyd County-based district is becoming increasingly Republican. With a Democratic performance rate of less than 52 percent, it's no longer considered a safe seat.

The region's numbers are even more problematic for House Democrats. Eight Democratic incumbents in the lower chamber, including Speaker Tom Murphy of Bremen, are seeking re-election in districts with Democratic performance rates of 45 to 50 percent.

Dr. Bullock said voters in north Georgia have been supporting Republicans for president since the 1960s and began voting for statewide GOP candidates in the past decade.

"They're used to voting Republican," he said. "They may make an exception to vote for a (Rep. Jeannette) Jamieson (of Toccoa) or a (Sen. Carol) Jackson (of Cleveland), but they think of themselves as Republicans."

"We'll be lucky to come back with 20 senators." - Sen. Eric Johnson, R-Savannah, on the GOP's chances in the election

--From the Sunday, November 3, 2002 printed edition of the Augusta Chronicle