In political races that pundits have repeatedly described as too close to call, a poll commissioned by The Augusta Chronicle and WRDW-TV Channel 12 suggests that victorious candidates running for mayor, the Senate and the House will win by narrow margins, some closerthan others.
The findings come from an Insider Advantage poll conducted earlier this week exclusively for The Augusta Chronicle and WRDW-TV.
If poll numbers prove to be true, Mayor Bob Young and former Mayor Ed McIntyre will face each other in a runoff, while analysis of the Senate District 22 race suggests that state Sen. Charles Walker will easily defeat his Republican opponent.
Insider Advantage also reports that Republican Max Burns will defeat Democrat Charles "Champ" Walker Jr. in the race for Congress' newly created 12th District seat.
A large number of undecided voters in this year's mayoral race - 40 percent, Insider Advantage reports - could cause an unexpected upset of either Mr. McIntyre or Mr. Young for a runoff spot. The two men have 24 percent and 20 percent of the vote, respectively.
Three remaining candidates are trailing, with single-digit support, the poll says.
Former state Rep. Robin Williams has 8 percent of the vote; downtown businesswoman Bonnie Ruben has 6 percent of the vote; and Augusta gardening store owner Bobby Ross has 2 percent.
Findings of the mayoral and District 22 polls, which are based on a sampling of 300 people, have a margin of error of 6 percent.
Findings of the District 12 poll, based on a sampling of 670 people, have a margin of error of 4 percent.
With so many undecided voters, mayoral candidates are expected to enter into a last-minute frenzy of campaign activity to try to sway votes their way - especially because voter indecision isn't expected to keep people away from the polls, said Matt Towery, the chairman of Insider Advantage and a syndicated political columnist.
"You have so many races going on, people demographically seem to turn out to vote," Mr. Towery said. "So my guess is they ultimately will vote, but who they vote for is anybody's guess."
In Senate District 22, the incumbent, Mr. Walker Sr., is strongly favored to win with 40 percent support, compared to only 28 percent support for Mr. Hall, the poll said. Thirty-two percent of voters are undecided in that race, poll analysis found, which means any negative or last-minute campaign efforts could turn the vote around.
"State legislative races are the most difficult to poll," Mr. Towery said.
The number of undecided votes is relatively high in all the races, but pollsters say the trends identified in a poll prove to be true 90 percent of the time.
Reach Heidi Coryell Williams at (706) 823-3215 or heidi.williams@augustachronicle.com.
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