Richmond County Sheriff Ronnie Strength said he's seen it before.

A fiscally tight economy. Jobs lost. In turn, more crimes committed across the county.

"We do see an increase in crime in times like these," he said. "We've seen it already. We're answering more calls. We have a heavier load."

Gas drive-offs, thefts and burglaries have increased in the past several months, Sheriff Strength said.

The Sheriff's Department surveyed crime from June through August and discovered a 13 percent increase in property crime compared to the same period last year, rising from 3,826 to 4,338 this year.

An economy plagued by lost jobs, a bad housing market and financially strapped businesses and individuals will inevitably cause a spike in crime, said Naci Mocan, an economics professor at Louisiana State University.

Higher unemployment will have a domino effect, said Bruce Weinberg, an Ohio State University economics professor.

Dr. Weinberg conducted a study on how the unemployment of male high school dropouts and graduates, who are most prone to committing crimes, affects the national crime rate. The study, which looked at the rates between 1979 and 1997, found that for every one point increase in unemployment, property crime goes up 2 percent.

"When you can't find a job, you don't go out and rape someone," he said. "You steal a car. You rob."

Once those individuals have committed crimes they become less employable, likely prompting them to continue committing crimes and remain jobless, Dr. Mocan said.

"People who are on the margin will have fewer opportunities," he said. "It takes longer to reduce the crime rate after unemployment goes up."

Copper theft is one of the major crimes affected by difficult economic times, said Richmond County sheriff's Sgt. Horace Anderson.

There's been a noticeable increase in copper thefts in the past several months, he said, adding that it represents about 10 percent of all property crimes in Richmond County.

"We're arresting some of these people over and over again," Sgt. Anderson said. "They don't have a job. They're trying to put food on the table."

Copper thieves get more than $3 per pound for copper. Copper is stolen from air conditioning units, the walls of homes in new subdivisions and vacated homes, leading Sgt. Anderson to believe the housing crisis could be a factor in the crime spike.

"I think things are getting worse with the vacated houses due to people selling them or the houses being foreclosed on," Sgt. Anderson said. "Those are the homes that are hit the most."

For some, the fear of losing their jobs can lead to crimes other than robberies and copper theft, said Bill Reese, an Augusta State University sociology professor who has been a criminologist for more than 30 years.

Many middle class workers are facing the reality that their 401(k)s and other retirement plans have lost 30 to 40 percent of their value.

The uncertain economic times likely will cause an increase in white collar crimes such as embezzlement and insider trading, Dr. Reese said.

"We know about those going out and robbing, but we won't hear about the tellers giving themselves some leverage by embezzling from (banks)," he said. "Those sorts of crimes of trust can cost thousands in the span of six months to a year."

Dr. Reese said white collar crimes should be monitored as closely as "street crimes," especially as the economy worsens.

It will be a while before the weakened economy's impact shows itself in crime rates, Dr. Mocan said. The next president, he said, will have to deal with some of the fundamental economic problems that could lead to an increase in crime.

"If there are budget deficits for the programs to help train and find jobs for the jobless, it becomes harder to combat unemployment," Dr. Mocan said.

With his deputies already busy trying to suppress crime, Sheriff Strength expects their jobs to be even more challenging during this economic downturn.

"We'll work harder. We'll do whatever we can, but we can't solve it," he said. "We'll just have to tighten our belts."

Reach Stephanie Toone at (706) 823-3215 or stephanie.toone@augustachronicle.com.

Property Crimes Increase

Richmond County Sheriff's Department surveyed crime from June to August and found that property crime increased compared to the same time period last year. Sheriff Ronnie Strength partly links the growing number of property crimes to the downturn in the economy:

		2007			2008
All property crimes		3,826			4,338
	JUNE	JULY	AUG.	JUNE	JULY	AUG.
Armed robbery	17	35	23	35	35	38
Other robberies	34	22	17	47	44	22
Burglary	213	273	222	275	313	340
Auto theft	218	238	235	161	130	137
Theft by taking	732	656	891	952	929	880