ATHENS, Ga. - Not many state lawmakers really want to revamp Georgia's tax system, but they might do it anyway, the director of an Atlanta think tank says.

House Speaker Glenn Richardson has shown skill in corralling Republican state representatives' votes, Alan Essig, the executive director of the Georgia Budget and Policy Institute, said during a forum this week on tax reform at the University of Georgia. Mr. Richardson will put that ability to use next year, when he tries to push through his proposal to eliminate local property taxes and replace them with new sales taxes, Mr. Essig said.

Democrats in the House and Senate have the numbers to stop the plan, which requires a two-thirds vote, but might go along with it for political reasons. The same goes for Republicans in the Senate, where Lt. Gov. Casey Cagle might run against Mr. Richardson for governor in 2010.

"Very few (legislators) tell me they think it's a good idea," Mr. Essig said. "At the same time, very few tell me they'll vote against it."

The speaker's proposal requires a constitutional amendment that can't be vetoed, so Gov. Sonny Perdue has little say in it.

But Mr. Essig called on Mr. Perdue to appoint a nonpartisan blue-ribbon tax reform panel that could give cover to legislators who want to vote against Mr. Richardson's plan but don't think they can get away with it.

If it's on the ballot, voters will pass it, he said.

"As Americans, it's in our DNA to hate taxes," he said. "We were born in a tax rebellion."

That would be a disaster for the state's economy and ability to provide services, especially education and health care, Mr. Essig said.

Low- and middle-income Georgians would pay an even bigger proportion of their incomes under Mr. Richardson's plan than they do under Georgia's already-regressive tax system, he said.

Taxing services and getting rid of sales tax exemptions such as the one on groceries won't make up the $8.5 billion to $9.5 billion property tax cut, Mr. Essig said.

"There's nothing that adds up even close to $9.5 billion," he said. "In my mind, the math just doesn't work."

The numbers are hard to calculate, though, because the plan is based on Mr. Richardson's speeches and interviews. Nothing is on paper yet.

"The devil is in the details," Athens-Clarke Mayor Heidi Davison said. "I haven't seen the devil yet."

Speakers also brought up the much-discussed issue of whether the state or local governments should have control over taxes for local services.