Once-booming areas see real estate action dry up
Developers put blame on economy, water level
By Rob Pavey| Staff Writer
Wednesday, September 24, 2008

GOSHEN, Ga. --- At the posh entrance to the Providence Ferry development on Thurmond Lake, a reflection pool, flower beds and stacked stone pillars beckon to visitors.

Beyond the grand entrance, however, there are miles of empty roads surrounded by 310 choice home sites -- and just three houses for sale.

The inactivity -- mirrored at more than a dozen developments along Lincoln County's abundant shoreline -- is a symptom of uncertain times.

Just three years ago, when Thurmond Lake was at its highest level in decades, potential buyers for another development -- Stillwater Coves -- were courted with catered dinners, live music, helicopter rides and a fireworks display. Land Resource, the parent company, boasted $43 million in sales in November 2005.

Today, there is little activity at the 954-acre site, and the company recently closed its local office and left town.

"A lot of people who got these lots want to resell, but they can't; they're stuck," said Dale Turner, a Realtor whose Lincolnton-based company specializes in lake-area property. "We're in a rip-roaring mess up here right now." Although Mr. Turner places much of the blame on low water levels, Stillwater Coves' parent company contends the economy is a much greater problem.

Citing "declining real estate sales and a credit market that continues to deteriorate," Land Resource said in a news release it is "working with lenders to restructure the company's debt and bring the capital structure in line with today's market place realities."

Mr. Turner, who estimated he has been asked to list 50 Stillwater Coves lots, said owners have little chance of reselling at 2005 prices, which included waterfront sites for $200,000 to $300,000.

"I'm trying to reanalyze the prices now," he said. "They have zero chance of selling this winter, but maybe we can sell next year. Since the developers never finished the infrastructure, you can't even build in there right now."

When prices fall, there will be opportunities, he said.

"It's a super time to buy, but people are apprehensive right now about doing anything with their money," he said. "And if you buy a lot for $100,000 where people a year ago bought them for $200,000, how'd you like to be the neighbor who paid twice as much?"

Meg Burg, Lincoln County's planning and zoning director, said there are 19 developments in the county in varying stages of completion.

"A lot of them, based on the economy, have just held off," she said. "They feel like they made good investments, but at least for now, the timing isn't right."

Providence Ferry is one of the largest and most complete developments and should do fine when the economy recovers, she predicted.

"When things were good, they sold about 80 percent of their lots, but there are only three houses in there so far," she said. "But keep in mind that people buy these properties as investments, or for someplace to retire to five or 10 years down the road, so we didn't expect them to fill up right away."

Kenny Adair, the county's chief tax appraiser, said the real estate boom over the past five years has helped Lincoln County immensely -- even if activity is stagnant now.

"There will never be another Clarks Hill Lake, and people know that, so land is always a good thing to have," he said.

Lincoln County, with more shoreline than any other county on the reservoir, had a tax digest of only $198.8 million in 2003. It has grown steadily to $315 million this year, with at least 80 percent of the growth attributable to developments along the lake.

"People want to know how we get all this revenue with no houses," Mr. Adair said. "But the people who buy these lots are good taxpayers."

Developers also invest millions in their properties, which means the county doesn't have to, he said.

Providence Ferry, for example, financed the paving and installation of water lines along a six-mile county dirt road to link its subdivision with Georgia Highway 79.

"Those miles of waterlines will benefit all the residents up and down Highway 79," Mr. Adair said. "So it helps people who don't live anywhere near the lake."

Mr. Turner believes lake levels have more impact on real estate values than most people realize.

In 2005, for example, when sales were brisk, the lake was at its highest levels in decades. By comparison, it is almost 15 feet low this year and expected to fall even more.

"People aren't buying on this lake like they used to and it's all the corps' (of engineers) fault," he said. "I've got lots appraised for $310,000 a year ago I couldn't sell for $200,000 right now."

The culprits, he said, are easily identified: "It's a combination of low water three times in 10 years ruining people's confidence, horrible economics and the worst real estate market since the Depression. It can't help but to get better."

Reach Rob Pavey at 868-1222, ext. 119 or rob.pavey@augustachronicle.com.

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