There's one answer for '06 predictions
By Scott Michaux| Columnist
Wednesday, August 30, 2006

Despite another hurricane threatening to dampen the opening weekend of the college football season, the forecast for this fall looks good.

Rampant goodness, in fact. In terms of our Big Four schools in what the NCAA now dubs the "Bowl Division," this might be what my 5-year-old son would call the goodest season ever.

It looks so good across the board that only one blanket prediction will suffice for Georgia, Georgia Tech, Clemson and South Carolina.

And the number is ... 8-4.

OK, now that you've spit out your Cheerios, cursed my name and sworn vengeance upon my family for expressing what boils down to a meaningless opinion, hear me out. Coming up with this universally modest assessment of future performance involved literally minutes of scientifically calculating data from a complex menagerie of subjective hunches and guesses.

You just can't argue with that kind of logic.

It starts with the simple premise that greatness is not revealed by any of these teams.

Sure, Georgia is in the midst of its most successful run of four consecutive 10-win seasons, but history and an uninspiring quarterback seem to indicate an inevitable downtick.

Yes, Clemson has the potential to be the finest team yet under head coach Tommy Bowden, but the last two words of that statement contain a coded message implying a letdown.

I know Georgia Tech has a legitimate Heisman Trophy contender and the ability to beat anyone, but the Jackets also have quarterback Reggie Ball and five ranked opponents on the schedule.

Of course South Carolina's Steve Spurrier is a coaching genius, but it doesn't take too much sense to do the math in the Southeastern Conference and add up four likely losses.

In the new 12-game season format, each team has three take-it-for-granted victories and at least three more in-all-likelihood wins. Instantly you are already on the cusp of the "bowl eligibility" bubble. What, if any, bowl that will be is determined by the remaining six games which can go either way. There is always a make-or-break game that tends to define the season.

With that in mind, let's take a closer look at each of our regional candidates:

Clemson

The Tigers have the best chance of stepping up and making a run for the ACC title. No question, this is a talented team loaded with possibilities. Unfortunately, Bowden rarely gets the most of that potential.

GIMMES: Florida Atlantic, Louisiana Tech and Temple

BEATABLE: North Carolina, Wake Forest, Maryland and N.C. State

BEST BYE: No Miami

BIGGEST TESTS: at Boston College, at Florida State, Georgia Tech, at Virginia Tech and South Carolina

MAKE OR BREAK: Which way this season goes will be determined in the second and third week with back-to-back road games at B.C. and Florida State.

PREDICTION: Will lose three huge road tests and cough up one more it shouldn't (watch Wake Forest).


Georgia Tech

Which team will show up on a week-to-week basis? The one that beats Auburn and Miami on the road or the one that loses to Duke? Sound and solid defense always makes the Jackets dangerous, but ...

GIMMES: Samford, Troy and Duke

BEATABLE: Virginia, Maryland, N.C. State and North Carolina

BEST BYES: No B.C. or Florida State

BIGGEST TESTS: Notre Dame, at Virginia Tech, at Clemson. Miami, at Georgia

MAKE OR BREAK: Sept. 30 in Blacksburg, Va., will determine if the Jackets are true contenders.

PREDICTION: Beating Georgia in Athens will be the highlight of a schedule that is simply too hard to handle.


Georgia

Unless coach Mark Richt underwent a complete makeover and decided to commit to a punishing, multipronged ground attack, the Bulldogs will reveal inadequacies in the passing game that will keep them down. The competition in the SEC East will be tougher as well, meaning there will be no backing into the championship game.

GIMMES: Western Kentucky, Alabama-Birmingham, Vanderbilt

BEATABLE: Colorado, Ole Miss, Mississippi State, Kentucky

BEST BYE: No Louisiana State

BIGGEST TESTS: at South Carolina, Tennessee, Florida, at Auburn, Georgia Tech

MAKE OR BREAK: Week 2 in South Carolina and Oct. 7 against Tennessee will determine the relevance of the Florida game.

PREDICTION: Early ambush in Columbia and late-season swoon against Gators, Tigers and Jackets will humble Bulldog Nation.


South Carolina

Spurrier accomplished more than anyone thought he could last season, coming within a couple blown chances against Georgia of actually winning the SEC East. Beating his old Gators actually pumped new life into the division that has never really considered the Gamecocks serious threats.

GIMMES: Wofford, Florida Atlantic and Middle Tennessee

BEATABLE: Mississippi State, Kentucky, Vanderbilt

BEST BYE: No LSU

BIGGEST TESTS: Georgia, Auburn, Tennessee, Arkansas, at Florida, at Clemson

MAKE OR BREAK: With all of the other perils, Arkansas looms as potentially the bowl buster.

PREDICTION: Will split the four big tests at home, but there's no getting past that late gauntlet at Florida and Clemson.

With this balance of power, it would only be fitting that Georgia face Clemson in the bowl formerly known as Peach while South Carolina and Georgia Tech meet in the Music City Bowl. Then we can crown the round-robin champ.

As for the bigger picture, here's where the greatness will reside.

SEC CHAMPIONSHIP: Florida regains its strut and beats LSU in the championship game.

ACC CHAMPIONSHIP: Miami will bookend its season with wins over Florida State.

BCS CHAMPIONSHIP: Miami will reunite with former Big East rival West Virginia in Arizona, where the Mountaineers will exact a measure of revenge.

Reach Scott Michaux at (706) 823-3219 or scott.michaux@augustachronicle.com.

From the Wednesday, August 30, 2006 edition of the Augusta Chronicle
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