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Web posted June 13, 2000
Yet oddly enough, in one of the meanest, strife-torn parts of the world, Assad was a stabilizing influence. He had huge clout in his Mideast neighborhood, especially with Lebanon.
However much Assad confounded and double-crossed his domestic foes, or lied about sponsoring terrorism, he appeared to negotiate in good faith with the West - which isn't to say he was an easy customer. But if he gave his word, he kept it.
In recent years, Assad had shown a willingness to, if not make peace with Israel, to at least co-exist. This is where his loss will be most felt. As his region's strongman, he could wheel and deal on the global stage.
But will the late president's son and designated successor, Bashar Assad, be strong enough to continue his father's peaceful overtures? The computer-savvy, Western-educated eye doctor has virtually no political or military training, but for now he does have the backing of Syria's military.
If young Assad can keep that support, he may be able to pick up where his father left off - and perhaps even bring a measure of freedom and democracy to his nation. Conversely, if he can't maintain control, Syria could descend into ethnic and regional violence, and become prey to its Arab enemies, such as Iraq's Saddam Hussein.
This would destabilize that part of the world, the ugly consequences of which we can only speculate. The U.S. can do little for now except to keep our fingers crossed that young Assad can hold his father's regime together.
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