Has there ever been a soap opera as enticing, as rife with expectations, as the tale of Oddball Axl and his Guns N' Roses?

Some facsimile of the band will take the stage tonight at New York's Hammerstein Ballroom for the first of four dates scheduled over 10 days. It will be the first time the notorious rock ensemble has faced fans since 2002.

The event comes on the heels of Axl Rose's declaration, made on a radio show this week, that the "lost" Guns N' Roses record Chinese Democracy will be released this fall, about 13 years after production began. Given the revolving door that has found musicians in and out of favor with the famously fickle Mr. Rose, it's impossible to say who might appear on this most-tweaked of releases, much less on stage with the band. Though bass player Tommy Stinson, formerly of the 1980s college rock pioneers The Replacements; Nine Inch Nails guitar shredder Robin Finck; and Brian "Brain" Mantia, formerly of Primus, have shown longevity and could be considered safe bets, nothing is certain in the wild world of Axl. Rumors have swirled that original Guns guitarist Izzy Stradlin has returned and that Slash, who competed with Mr. Rose for the spotlight during Guns' golden age, might also pick up with his old act. Unless Mr. Rose is ready to go Skynyrd with three guitars in tow, that could leave Mr. Finck looking for new employment.

There also have been rumors of a Replacements reunion floating around for several years. What is known is that Mr. Stinson reunited with Replacement members Paul Westerberg and Chris Mars to record a couple of tracks for a best-of collection due in stores this month. Given that Guns has a lot of European dates slated for summer, that could prove to be a conflict of time and interests.

Of course, the real burning question here is whether, after more than a decade of silence, Guns N' Roses is still relevant. Don't get me wrong: Appetite for Destruction was an instant classic and a genre-defining album, but what made that record so remarkable was its scorching sense of immediacy. The band jettisoned that feeling with the bloated Use Your Illusion albums and half-hearted Spaghetti Incident covers collection. It seems unlikely that Chinese Democracy, a set of songs Mr. Rose has twiddled and tweaked for 13 long years, could possibly mark a return to form. My guess is that the last vestiges of immediacy were fiddled out of existence sometime around year eight.

Still, you have to be fascinated by the flurry of activity that suddenly surrounds this once-classic, now a little tragic, rock band. It seems unlikely that Axl Rose and whatever Guns he assembles will ever be able to lead fans back to the Jungle, but watching the soap is almost as much fun.

Reach Steven Uhles at (706) 823-3626 or steven.uhles@augustachronicle.com.