The trend is not unique to Augusta. Minority populations are increasing in cities nationwide.

But how local officials govern increasingly diverse communities such as Augusta will likely determine the cities that thrive and those that just survive the next decade of population fluctuations.

``Urban leaders who serve on top of these trends successfully are the ones who think about the reforms that need to be made,'' said Alan Berube, senior research analyst for Urban and Metropolitan Policy at the Brookings Institute.

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Mr. Berube conducted a study of the 100 largest U.S. cities - Augusta is the 87th-largest - to see how racial changes have affected them.

Among those 100 cities, white population loss was widespread during the past decade. Seventy-one cities lost at least 2 percent of their white populations between 1990 and 2000, according to the Washington-based think tank.

Augusta was one of 18 cities to make the crossover from being predominantly white to predominantly black during that time, losing, on average, about 1 percent of its white population each year.

In 1990, Augusta was 55 percent white and 41 percent black. The 2000 census data show that Augusta now is 46 percent white and 49 percent black.

Augusta also saw 5 percent growth during that time. Slow growth was common among other cities that lost whites, with an average increase of less than 6 percent since 1990.

``Cities are where change happens,'' Mr. Berube said. ``Our finding implication is that cities who did grow grew across racial and ethnic lines.''

The direction of change

Currently, Augusta Commission districts have been drawn so that the city is split equally between white and black representation.

Every 10 years, when census data are released, politicians have the chance to change the lines of districts by reapportioning them so that each elected official represents roughly the same number of people.

Based on Richmond County's population of 199,775 people, new commission districts should contain between 23,700 and 26,220 constituents each.

Computer software will be used to determine exactly how many people existing commission districts have gained or lost in the past 10 years, but some assumptions can be made about how the city will be redistricted: Communities that have grown in population and become more dense will have smaller commission districts; areas that have lost residents will expand to encompass a larger population.

The bulk of Augusta's growth has been in the southern and western parts of the city. In those areas of growth, the population is becoming more diverse.

The southern end of the county - commission Districts 4, 6 and 8 - has seen population increases, as have most of west Augusta's Districts 3 and 7.

The southern end of the county grew by nearly 6,000, or about 46 percent, and the ratio of whites to blacks in south Augusta is now more than 3.5 to 1.

West Augusta, which is encompassed mostly by Districts 3 and 7, gained half as many people, 3,368, during the past decade, a 75 percent increase. The western part of the city also is more diverse, with a black-to-white ratio of 1 to 1.5.

The city's majority black urban center, encompassed by Districts 1, 2 and 5, have largely declined in population.

Race and redistricting

As the process of redistricting and reapportionment moves forward, experts say there will be a concerted push to maintain the city's current political balance along racial lines.

But maintaining the status quo will take a tremendous amount of time, said Dr. Ralph Walker, a political science professor at Augusta State University.

``There will be strenuous efforts to keep the racial relationship the same that it is now,'' Dr. Walker said.

Although he makes no predictions as to how the lines will be drawn, he said he expects those lines will be challenged before the Justice Department, likely several times, before a plan is approved.

``The only thing I'm pretty sure of is it will end up in court before it's all over,'' Dr. Walker said. ``It's going to be quite a while before we get new districts.''

A delicate balance must be achieved for lines to receive approval from the Justice Department. The Voting Rights Act says the power of minority voters cannot be diminished during the drawing of new lines, but a 1995 Supreme Court ruling determined that race cannot be the predominant factor in a redistricting effort.

The Supreme Court has said, however, that political affiliation can be used to redistrict.

Dr. Walker argues that anyone who knows the politics of each district well enough will be able to racially gerrymander the districts using political affiliation.

``You can accomplish the same ends either way,'' Dr. Walker said.

Joint efforts

When the city and county governments consolidated, Augusta was given the power to redistrict itself and submit political lines independent of state officials.

In anticipation of this, the city charter committee endorsed the formation of a residents group to study and make recommendations to commissioners on local reapportionment.

But Augusta commissioners voted against that recommendation last week, and instead approved a plan to work directly with members of the Richmond County Board of Education and the state legislative delegation to draw new districts.

``Sometimes we underutilize our citizens,'' Commissioner Willie Mays said. ``This is one question, quite frankly, where we're going to have to end up biting that bullet and dealing with it.''

Although local officials can submit their own plans, the legislative delegation still has the power to override any local decisions, so it's in local officials' best interests to gain the support of state representatives.

Currently, commission and school board districts are the same. Commissioners and school board members have said the continuity of those lines should be maintained as a matter of convenience and clarity for local voters. The best way to do that is to wait and see what state officials do, then fall in behind them, likely sometime next spring.

The General Assembly will meet in a special session this summer to begin discussing the reapportionment of House and Senate districts.

The continuity of district lines also is widely supported by elections officials, including Richmond County Board of Elections Executive Director Lynn Bailey.

``We don't want to confuse voters,'' Ms. Bailey said. ``Our hope is at least if we have to move voters, we won't have to move precincts. They would still vote in the same place, just have different candidates.''

Reach Heidi Coryell at (706) 823-3215.