RALEIGH, N.C. --- The catering business isn't what economists would call recession-proof. Luckily for J.W. Walton, most of his biggest clients are.
The Catering Co., of Chapel Hill, specializes in gala affairs, with fireworks, floral centerpieces and menus that feature things such as panna cotta with Macedonia di frutta, and orange muffins with smoked turkey and lemon verbena jelly. About 70 percent of the firm's business comes from the area's three big research universities -- Duke down the road in Durham, North Carolina State in Raleigh and the University of North Carolina's flagship campus in Chapel Hill.
Even with the national economy slipping toward the doldrums, business is steady.
"We're in a funny place," says Mr. Walton, a partner and the firm's catering/dÃcor services designer. "The universities and the hospitals and the things that make the unique mix of business in this area are somewhat less driven directly by the economic conditions."
There's all kinds of talk these days about companies, industries and careers that are immune to these economic downswings.
Are there recession-proof places, though?
Business consultant Mark Hovind thinks so.
Using data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, Mr. Hovind, the president of JobBait.com, compared job expansion in a number of key industries and work force growth in various metropolitan areas. He came up with a list of about two dozen areas where jobs outpaced the work force during the recessions of 1990 and 2001, and in the past year, and figured they'd likely fare well in another downturn.
"It's like keeping up with inflation," said Mr. Hovind, an engineer who describes himself as "a career coach for six-and seven-figure executives. When the cost of living goes up 3 percent, you need a 3 percent raise just to stay even."
Among the metropolitan areas making his list were Prescott, Ariz.; Fayetteville, Ark.; Bakersfield, Calif.; Grand Junction, Colo.; Bend, Ore.; Valdosta, Ga.; and Morgantown, W.Va.
Each has an economy built around some industry -- or mix of industries -- that "don't follow the business cycle pattern," says Matt Martin, an economist for the Federal Reserve Bank's Charlotte office. They're regional health-care centers, state capitals or university towns.
They include State College, home to Pennsylvania State University, which is on the list.
With its 24,000 full- and part-time employees and record fall enrollment of 42,200 students, the school is the economic engine that runs this town nestled amid the hills and hardwood forests of central Pennsylvania.
On a recent weekday midmorning, waitresses at the Original Waffle Shop on West College Avenue bustled about the bright, cheery restaurant, filling the coffee mugs of salesmen in suits and retirees gossiping about Penn State football.
John Dimakopoulos says business has done nothing but climb since he opened the doors in 1972.
"For State College to feel the crunch, that means every place else will be suffering," says Mr. Dimakopoulos, 59.
In Olympia, Wash., the local cash cow is state government.
At the southernmost tip of scenic Puget Sound, the population of this smallish city of 44,000 swells during the legislative session, when lawmakers, lobbyists and special interest groups swarm downtown coffee shops and eateries.
Olympia is home not only to the Capitol and the bustle of politics that surrounds it, but also to two regional hospitals, Evergreen State College and a lively arts community.
Of course, even these "well-insulated" places would feel the effects of a recession.
Mr. Hovind says his use of the term "recession-proof" shouldn't be misconstrued as meaning a place is untouched by economic malaise.
Despite continued job growth and housing prices that are still climbing, the Triangle didn't make Mr. Hovind's list.
People get the mistaken impression that the Triangle -- with the state government in Raleigh, the pharmaceutical firms of the Research Triangle Park, and the major research centers of Duke, NC State and UNC -- is recession-proof, says NC State economist Michael Walden.
But the area is also heavily dependent on the technology and financial services sectors, both of which were hit hard in 2001 and would likely suffer in another recession, he says.
"So we do go through economic swings just like the rest of the nation," he says.
IS AUGUSTA RECESSION PROOF?
With large government installations and a major health care industry, is the Augusta-Aiken area "recession proof?"
Local economic analyst Mark Thompson won't go so far as to say that, but he does acknowledge having Fort Gordon, the Medical College of Georgia and Savannah River Site as major employers insulates the market from national economic downturns.
"Education, health services and government-type jobs are not going to have the swings in either direction," said Dr. Thompson, an economics professor at Augusta State University's Hull College of Business. "When the economy is doing well, they're not going to hire a bunch of people, and when its contracting, they're not going to get rid of a bunch of people."
The downside to having stable, slow growth industries is that the city will not experience a high rate of growth. If Augusta-Aiken was an investment portfolio, it would largely consist of government-backed securities and conservative blue chip stocks, he said.
"We're not going to see growth of 10 percent year over year," Dr. Thompson said. "We're more likely to see 1 or 2 percent year over year."
-- Damon Cline, business editor

