Pundits can weigh voting trends from previous years, box office performances and whispers from the rumor mill until they are blue (or, more appropriately, gold) in the face. But the truth is that there are no sure things, not until the envelope is opened.

This year has proved particularly difficult.

Unlike last year, when Julia Roberts was as close to a sure thing as Oscar allows, or the year before when American Beauty entered the ceremony as a strong favorite for Best Picture, there are few safe bets in this year's race.

Makes it fun, doesn't it?

Here are my predictions for this year's Oscar winners, as well as who I believe deserves a metal man for their mantel. Believe me, it's not always one and the same.

BEST PICTURE

TUNE IN The 74th Academy Awards pre-show starts at 8 tonight. The ceremony, with Whoopi Goldberg as host, begins at 8:30 p.m. on WJBF-TV (Channel 6).

Nominees: A Beautiful Mind, Gosford Park, In the Bedroom, The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring and Moulin Rouge!

Who will win: A Beautiful Mind

This is the kind of movie the Academy loves. It's a period piece. It's about mental illness. It's based on a true story. It can't lose. Even the factual omissions made in the interest of keeping Beautiful a feel-good story won't deter voters.

Who should win: The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring

Sadly, the Academy hates fantasies, and no matter how grand Fellowship is, Hollywood will not honor dwarves, orcs and warring wizards.

BEST ACTOR

Nominees: Russell Crowe - A Beautiful Mind, Sean Penn - I Am Sam, Will Smith - Ali, Denzel Washington - Training Day and Tom Wilkinson - In the Bedroom

Who will win: Denzel Washington.

Hollywood loves Mr. Washington and, after nominating him in this category twice before, are ready to give him the big prize. Besides, Mr. Washington's bulldog performance as a rogue cop is a powerful piece of drama.

Who should win: Denzel Washington.

Because sometimes they get it right.

BEST ACTRESS

Nominees: Halle Berry - Monster's Ball, Judi Dench - Iris, Nicole Kidman - Moulin Rouge!, Sissy Spacek - In the Bedroom and Renee Zellweger - Bridget Jones's Diary.

Who will win: Sissy Spacek

Ms. Spacek not only is a film-industry favorite in a heavily nominated film, but she also has been cleaning up, award-wise, for her role as a distraught mother coming to terms with the death of a child.

Who should win: Halle Berry.

If not for the brutal honesty with which she approached the role, or having the courage to accept a part that played against her glamourous image, then for braving the wrath of Angelina Jolie for spending some intimate screen time with Ms. Jolie's thespian spouse, Billy Bob Thornton.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Nominees: Jim Broadbent - Iris, Ethan Hawke - Training Day, Ben Kingsley - Sexy Beast, Ian McKellen - The Lord of the Rings: Fellowship of the Ring and Jon Voight - Ali

Who will win: Ian McKellen

The Academy will want to give Lord of the Rings at least one of the major awards, and this seems to be the most suitable. Also, Mr. McKellen's reputation as a British stage legend in the Laurence Olivier mold can't hurt him.

Who should win: Ben Kingsley.

Actually, Gene Hackman (The Royal Tenenbaums) or Steve Buscemi (Ghost World) were my picks in this category, but their nominations seem to have been lost in the mail. Mr. Kingsley's psychotic anti-Ghandi comes in a distant third.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Nominees: Jennifer Connelly - A Beautiful Mind, Helen Mirren - Gosford Park, Maggie Smith - Gosford Park, Marisa Tomei - In the Bedroom and Kate Winslet - Iris

Who will win: Jennifer Connelly.

With Ms. Smith and Ms. Mirren splitting the Gosford Park vote, Ms. Connelly's competition is down to Ms. Winslet, whose performance was seen by very few, and Ms. Tomei, who is still considered something of a dramatic lightweight. So expect the glamorous Ms. Connelly to look lovely in the winner's circle.

Who should win: Maggie Smith.

Out of a cast of 22, Ms. Smith's is the performance people left the theater talking about.

BEST DIRECTOR

Nominees: Ron Howard - A Beautiful Mind, Ridley Scott Black Hawk Down, Robert Altman - Gosford Park, Peter Jackson - The Lord of the Rings: Fellowship of the Ring and David Lynch - Mulholland Drive

Who will win: Robert Altman

After four previous directing nominations, Mr. Altman will win both for returning to form with his ensemble comedy Gosford Park and for sticking it out in Hollywood for many years.

Who should win: Peter Jackson

The Kiwi filmmaker should win just for having the audacity to attempt such a massive and universally beloved project. But he'll fall to what will henceforth be known as "The Hobbit's Curse."

OUR READERS' PICKS

The entries are in. Now, how well did readers of The Augusta Chronicle do in picking Oscar recipients? We had 136 entrants in our contest to pick tonight's winners of Academy Awards. Participants who pick all six of the major category winners will be entered into a drawing to receive a prize package that includes four tickets to Regal Augusta Exchange 20, the soundtracksfrom We Were Soldiers, Moulin Rouge! and Strictly Ballroom and the booksAin't It Cool, by Harry Knowles and Roger Ebert's 2001 Movie Yearbook. We'll name the winner and the folks who picked all categories correctly in Tuesday's Your Life section.

Here are our reader favorites:

A Beautiful Mind, best picture, 83 votes.

Russell Crowe, A Beautiful Mind, best actor, 84 votes.

Halle Berry, Monster's Ball, best actress, 54 votes.

Ian McKellen, The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Rings, best supporting actor, 66 votes.

Jennifer Connelly, A Beautiful Mind, best supporting actress, 78 votes.

Ron Howard, A Beautiful Mind, best director, 76 votes.

Reach Steven Uhles at (706) 823-3626 or steven.uhles@augustachronicle.com.