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Best Picture

Nominees: "A Beautiful Mind," "Gosford Park," "In the Bedroom," "The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring," "Moulin Rouge"

Germain:

Should win: "Moulin Rouge," a cinematic kaleidoscope that runs the dramatic spectrum from slapstick to romantic comedy to high tragedy.

Will win: "A Beautiful Mind," a worthy film, and the safe and conventional bet in a field of more adventurous competitors.

Lemire:

Should win: "In the Bedroom," the best movie of 2001 because it had the biggest emotional impact. Stunning performances in a moving story, simply and powerfully told.

Will win: "A Beautiful Mind." Everyone can agree on it: an inspiring film based on a true story with strong performances, and nothing too weird that would split Oscar voters.

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Best Director

Nominees: Ron Howard, "A Beautiful Mind"; Ridley Scott, "Black Hawk Down"; Robert Altman, "Gosford Park"; Peter Jackson, "The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring"; David Lynch, "Mulholland Drive"

Germain:

Should win: Altman, for roaring back from a fitful couple of decades with a deviously funny satire that has a dozen or so Oscar-worthy performances.

Will win: Howard, who applied his mainstream touch to highbrow material and crafted a critical and commercial hit.

Lemire:

Should win: Howard. Because he's been around forever, he's never won an Oscar, and he's beloved in Hollywood. And this is the best movie he's ever made.

Will win: Altman. Because he's been around even longer, he's never won an Oscar despite numerous nominations, and while he's not exactly beloved in Hollywood, the academy will honor him for a lifetime of work.

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Best Actor

Nominees: Russell Crowe, "A Beautiful Mind"; Sean Penn, "I Am Sam"; Will Smith, "Ali"; Denzel Washington, "Training Day"; Tom Wilkinson, "In the Bedroom"

Germain:

Should win: Washington, who delivers one of the most likable bad guys since James Cagney in his gangster-flick days.

Will win: Washington. He's earned a best-actor Oscar to go with his supporting-role trophy.

Lemire:

Should win: Crowe. He deserves it more this year than he did last year when he won for "Gladiator." And Tom Hanks has shown that back-to-back best-actor Oscars are possible.

Will win: Washington. Because he doesn't have a best-actor Oscar, and while he doesn't necessarily deserve it for this role, the prevailing sentiment will be that he's due.

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Best Actress

Nominees: Halle Berry, "Monster's Ball"; Judi Dench, "Iris"; Nicole Kidman, "Moulin Rouge"; Sissy Spacek, "In the Bedroom"; Renee Zellweger, "Bridget Jones's Diary"

Germain:

Should win: Kidman, called upon to be a kook, a crooner, a can-can courtesan and a corpse. Performances don't get much more expansive.

Will win: Spacek, weighing in as one of the best ice queens since Mary Tyler Moore in "Ordinary People" (whom Spacek beat for best actress with "Coal Miner's Daughter").

Lemire:

Should win: Spacek, for the most quietly powerful performance of the year.

Will win: Spacek. I said it last year about Julia Roberts in "Erin Brockovich," and I'll say it again: Give in to the juggernaut.

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Best Supporting Actor

Nominees: Jim Broadbent, "Iris"; Ethan Hawke, "Training Day"; Ben Kingsley, "Sexy Beast"; Ian McKellen, "The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring"; Jon Voight, "Ali"

Germain:

Should win: Kingsley, who's as gut-punch scary playing mobster Don Logan as he was benign playing Gandhi.

Will win: Kingsley. Vote for him, academy members, or Don Logan's paying you a visit.

Lemire:

Should win: Kingsley. "Sexy Beast" was one of the best movies of 2001, and Kingsley was impossible to stop watching - in a movie no one saw.

Will win: McKellen. "Lord of the Rings," with its 13 nominations, has to win something in a major category, and it won't get best picture or best director.

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Best Supporting Actress

Nominees: Jennifer Connelly, "A Beautiful Mind"; Helen Mirren, "Gosford Park"; Maggie Smith, "Gosford Park"; Marisa Tomei, "In the Bedroom"; Kate Winslet, "Iris"

Germain:

Should win: Mirren. She delights with prim-and-proper restraint before breaking hearts with an emotional meltdown at film's end.

Will win: Connelly, whose powerful performance caps a string of bold roles informing Hollywood that she is far more than just a pretty face.

Lemire:

Should win: Connelly. And it's about time she receives the recognition she's deserved for years.

Will win: Connelly. Granted, she has an unfair advantage because she's really in a leading role, but she shines.