Too many front-runners might have stolen some of the thunder from this year's Academy Awards ceremony. The popular perception is that the four acting categories are all-but-locked and that the Oscars will - finally - honor maverick movie director Martin Scorsese with the gold he deserved 30 years ago.

Still, there's nothing like pundits preaching the wisdom of a sure thing to set up the upset. The truth is, 2006 was an exceptionally strong year for movies, showing that although the finances of the film industry have proved fickle over the past several years, the standards of excellence, when applied, continue to thrive.

Below are my picks for the Academy Awards winners in the five marquee categories, along with the actor, director or movie I believe should win, nominated or not. The winner of The Augusta Chronicle's Oscar contest will be announced in the March 1 issue of Applause.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Even if former American Idol also-ran Jennifer Hudson had not been the feel-good story of the awards season, her stellar performance in Dreamgirls merits, at very least, a nomination. Still, for my money, the wordless performance of Rinko Kikuchi in Babel was a far more challenging and noteworthy performance. It doesn't matter, however. Hollywood has fallen in love with Ms. Hudson, and that will bear Oscar fruit this evening.

Winner: Jennifer Hudson (Dreamgirls)

Should win: Rinko Kikuchi (Babel)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

You know what's better than a fallen superstar proving that he or she is an actor of substance? Absolutely nothing. If only for the sequence when Eddie Murphy's James Brown-inspired James "Thunder" Early in Dreamgirls silently acknowledges that he's been beaten by both life and the needle, Mr. Murphy deserves the acknowledgment of the academy.

Winner: Eddie Murphy (Dreamgirls)

Should win: Eddie Murphy (Dreamgirls)

BEST ACTRESS

Like Philip Seymour Hoffman's Capote triumph last year, Helen Mirren in The Queen has elevated the art of screen acting by taking a real person and making her the sort of compelling presence that galvanizes an audience. Ms. Mirren's take on Queen Elizabeth II was not only the best performance by an actress in a leading role this year but it also might have been the best performance - period.

Winner: Helen Mirren (The Queen)

Should win: Helen Mirren (The Queen)

BEST ACTOR

Though I've admired Forest Whitaker since his should-have-been-a-contender performance as jazz great Charlie Parker in Bird, I cannot, will not, believe that there is an actor alive who can beat perpetual Oscar bridesmaid Peter O'Toole in any film at any time. He's simply the greatest living movie actor. That being said, I'm afraid the oft-nominated Mr. O'Toole's work in Venus will get overlooked in favor of Mr. Whitaker's Idi Amin in The Last King of Scotland.

Winner: Forest Whitaker (The Last King of Scotland)

Should win: Peter O'Toole (Venus)

BEST DIRECTOR

With the exception of the late, great Stanley Kubrick, there has never been a filmmaker as chronically shafted by academy voters as Martin Scorsese. This should be his year. Not only is The Departed his strongest film in several years but it's also a return to the violent gangster epic that Mr. Scorsese does better than anyone. An Oscar would reward a director working at the top of his game and also will go toward the injustices dealt Taxi Driver in 1976, Raging Bull in 1980 and GoodFellas in 1990.

Winner: Martin Scorsese (The Departed)

Should win: Martin Scorsese (The Departed)

BEST PICTURE

This is the toughest race to call. Unfortunately, my picks for Best Picture - Pan's Labyrinth and Children of Men - didn't make the cut. The way I see it, this is a three-way race among the dark Babel, the violent The Departed and the quirky Little Miss Sunshine. Babel has lost most of its Golden Globe momentum, making it a photo finish between Sunshine and The Departed. The academy historically rewards violence more often than comedy, so I'm going with The Departed.

Winner: The Departed

Should win (but wasn't nominated): Pan's Labyrinth