With the worry of whether writers would return to provide canned chatter in time now behind us, we can settle in for what seems destined to be one of the darker Academy Awards ceremonies.
Death, paranoia and tragedy seem to be the watchwords for the Oscars this year. Whether it was murder in the wastelands of west Texas, dirty dealings in a New York law firm, or greed and gluttony in the early days of the oil industry, films had little encouraging to say about the nature of man. It tells us something that the movie offering the most levity is about an unplanned teen pregnancy.
Below is my take on the dour and dire offerings, my picks for the films and performances that will win.
SUPPORTING ACTRESS
NOMINEES: Cate Blanchett, I'm Not There; Ruby Dee, American Gangster; Saoirse Ronan, Atonement; Amy Ryan, Gone Baby Gone; and Tilda Swinton, Michael Clayton
ASSESSMENT: This is perhaps the toughest race to call. I see it as a sprint to the finish between Ms. Blanchett, who played Bob Dylan in I'm Not There, and Ms. Swinton, who played a brittle legal eagle in Michael Clayton. You probably shouldn't count out the veteran Ms. Dee, the American Gangster matriarch. My belief is that the Academy loves seeing established actors taking chances, particularly in supporting roles, so I'm going with Ms. Blanchett playing against type and gender.
WILL WIN: Cate Blanchett
SHOULD WIN: Tilda Swinton
SUPPORTING ACTOR
NOMINEES: Casey Affleck, The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford; Javier Bardem, No Country for Old Men; Hal Holbrook, Into the Wild; Philip Seymour Hoffman, Charlie Wilson's War; and Tom Wilkinson, Michael Clayton
ASSESSMENT: There were a lot of strong performances in this category. Mr. Wilkinson was a standout in Michael Clayton, a film full of impressive performances, and Mr. Hoffman all but owned Charlie Wilson's War. In another year, those would have been performances to bet on, but this year's Oscar belongs, and deservedly so, to Mr. Bardem for his frightening and funny portrayal of a ruthless killer in No Country for Old Men. It's the sort of performance people talk about for years.
WILL WIN: Javier Bardem
SHOULD WIN: Javier Bardem
BEST ACTRESS
NOMINEES: Cate Blanchett, Elizabeth: The Golden Age; Julie Christie, Away from Her; Marion Cotillard, La Vie en Rose; Laura Linney, The Savages; and Ellen Page, Juno
ASSESSMENT: These things I believe: Ms. Page will be a star, Ms. Linney is perhaps the most gifted actress working today, and in a perfect world, Ms. Cotillard is a star.
I ALSO BELIEVE THIS: None of them could carry Ms. Christie's luggage this year. She'll win because she's Hollywood royalty, because her heartbreaking performance as a wife struggling with Alzheimer's is the best of her career, and, more specifically, the best by a man or woman this year -- period.
WILL WIN: Julie Christie
SHOULD WIN: Julie Christie
BEST ACTOR
NOMINEES: George Clooney, Michael Clayton; Daniel Day-Lewis, There Will Be Blood; Johnny Depp, Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street; Tommy Lee Jones, In the Valley of Elah; and Viggo Mortensen, Eastern Promises
ASSESSMENT: There were a few surprising nominations in this category. Mr. Jones' nod seemed to come out of nowhere and Mr. Mortensen was a bit of a welcome shock. In the end, it doesn't matter. The momentum is clearly with Mr. Day-Lewis. The role is demanding, the film epic and Danny-D, as usual, is galvanizing.
WILL WIN: Daniel Day-Lewis
SHOULD WIN: Viggo Mortensen
BEST DIRECTOR
NOMINEES: Julian Schnabel, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly; Jason Reitman, Juno; Tony Gilroy, Michael Clayton; Joel and Ethan Coen, No Country for Old Men; and Paul Thomas Anderson, There Will Be Blood
ASSESSMENT: This one essentially comes down to Mr. Anderson and the Coen brothers. What will set them apart is the affections of the Academy voters. Mr. Anderson usually makes his movies outside the studio system. The Coens, on the other hand, have made many movies over the past 25 years and are beloved by the industry and film fans. The brothers take this one for outstanding achievement with No Country and their career as a whole.
WHO WILL WIN: Joel and Ethan Coen
WHO SHOULD WIN: Paul Thomas Anderson
BEST PICTURE
NOMINEES: Atonement, Juno, Michael Clayton, No Country for Old Men and There Will Be Blood
ASSESSMENT: Historically, picture follows director. The Coens seem to have both in the bag. This film is the brothers' strongest work in several years, and it's the sort of serious, scary crime story that the Coens love to do and audiences love to see them do. I would say the dark horses here are Atonement and There Will Be Blood.
WILL WIN: No Country for Old Men
SHOULD WIN: No Country for Old Men
OSCAR WATCH
WHAT: Academy Awards
WHEN: 8 tonight
WHERE: ABC
WHO WILL WIN IN AUGUSTA?
Did you enter our Pick the Oscar winner contest? The winner will be announced in the Feb. 28 edition of Applause.
Reach Steven Uhles at (706) 823-3626 or steven.uhles@augustachronicle.com.
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