LOS ANGELES - Martin Scorsese was an also-ran two years ago with "Gangs of New York." Clint Eastwood was a runner-up last year with "Mystic River."
This time, Scorsese's "The Aviator" and Eastwood's "Million Dollar Baby" go head-to-head for the Academy Awards best-picture prize, while the two veteran filmmakers also will duke it out for directing honors.
Unlike last year's utterly predictable ceremony, when clear front-runners took all the acting awards and "The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King" left precious few trophies for anyone else, these Oscars are anyone's guess in most categories.
Hilary Swank, Morgan Freeman and Cate Blanchett look like solid acting front-runners, but Annette Bening, Clive Owen and Virginia Madsen are among the rivals who could play spoiler.
Jamie Foxx looks like the one absolute lock in an evening loaded with uncertainty. For his remarkable embodiment of Ray Charles in "Ray," Foxx is one of the surest bets in Oscar history.
Here's a rundown of key categories for the Feb. 27 awards:
Best picture: "The Aviator," "Finding Neverland," "Million Dollar Baby," "Ray," "Sideways."
The prevailing sense in Hollywood is that Eastwood's boxing saga "Million Dollar Baby" will triumph because it carries an emotional wallop lacking in Scorsese's Howard Hughes epic "The Aviator."
Yet "The Aviator" is not down for the count. It's grand filmmaking buoyed by spectacular visuals, excellent performances and an engaging glimpse of old Hollywood in all its garish glory.
"Million Dollar Baby" has the momentum, though. Eastwood's second-straight best-picture contender after 2003's "Mystic River," "Million Dollar Baby" sneaked into the Oscar race at the last minute to liven up what had been an uncertain batch of hopefuls late last year.
Early on, Eastwood's film had been on no one's radar, with distributor Warner Bros. expecting to release it in 2005. The film did not begin shooting until last June, but with customary efficiency, Eastwood had a cut ready by fall for Warner executives, who rushed it into theaters in December to qualify for the Oscars.
The film stars Swank as an indomitable boxer in what initially is an uplifting "Rocky"-like story before it takes a harsh turn. Eastwood, whose dark Western "Unforgiven" won best picture for 1992, co-stars as her gruffly lovable trainer.
At that first Warner screening, "people were crying, and it was so evident that it was almost there already," said Albert Ruddy, a producer on "Million Dollar Baby." "We said, 'Well, let's make a run for it this year.'"
"The Aviator" reunites Scorsese with his "Gangs of New York" star Leonardo DiCaprio, playing millionaire Hughes in his earlier years as a womanizing Hollywood rebel and airplane speed freak, weaving in foreshadowing of the germ-phobic recluse to come.
Scorsese's best hope is that it's truly a close race among the 5,808 voting members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences. If it is, a few sentimental-favorite votes cast his way and a few "Clint's-already-earned-best-picture" votes cast against Eastwood could bring "The Aviator" in for a triumphant landing.
"To win would be really wonderful. If not, hopefully the picture could garner a few nods, which would help the picture. This is the main thing for me, at this point," Scorsese said.
The other three nominees are admirable films but longshots to win.
"Sideways," a darling of critics, stars Paul Giamatti as a sad-sack whose wine-tasting road trip with a buddy offers him a fresh chance at love. "Finding Neverland" features Johnny Depp as playwright J.M. Barrie in a whimsical exploration of the creation of his masterpiece "Peter Pan."
"Ray" had not been considered a shoo-in for a nomination but broke into the best-picture category on the strength of Foxx's great performance as singer Charles.
Best director: Martin Scorsese, "The Aviator"; Clint Eastwood, "Million Dollar Baby"; Taylor Hackford, "Ray"; Alexander Payne, "Sideways"; Mike Leigh, "Vera Drake." As with best picture, the directing category is a two-contestant race. Eastwood won the Golden Globe and the Directors Guild of America honor, the latter being a solid forecast of who will go on to win the Oscar.
Only six times in the previous 56 years has the guild winner failed to take the directing Oscar, though three of those times have come in the last nine years, and the guild is only two-for-four in predicting the academy winner over the last four years.
As with best picture, career sentiment could creep into some voters' thinking. Eastwood, also nominated a year ago for "Mystic River," won the directing Oscar for "Unforgiven," while Scorsese has one of the most notable records of futility at the Oscars for a filmmaker of his stature.
Nominated four times previously ("Raging Bull," "The Last Temptation of Christ," "GoodFellas" and "Gangs of New York"), Scorsese has lost every time. He was considered a sentimental favorite two years ago for "Gangs," but that movie was shut out in all 10 of its Oscar categories.
"I think a lot of people agree that he should have won many times in the past," said DiCaprio, a best-actor nominee for "The Aviator," who has a third movie in the works with Scorsese. "It's not the reason he does films ultimately, but what can I say, other than it would be nice to see."
Yet Eastwood, who at 74 would be the oldest directing winner ever, has emerged as one of the most beloved figures in Hollywood, particularly among fellow actors, who account for one-fourth of Oscar voters, the academy's largest branch.
Eastwood directed "Mystic River" stars Sean Penn and Tim Robbins to Oscars a year ago, while Swank and "Million Dollar Baby" co-star Freeman are among acting front-runners this time.
Swank, who has gushed with praise for Eastwood at earlier awards shows, said she could keep up the cheerleading for her entire life.
"I was actually asked that by him. He said, 'Are you going to run out of things to say?' And I said, 'Clint, I could talk every second for the rest of my life about you and never run out of things to say,'" Swank said. "And this is true."
Add in the fact that Eastwood directed "Million Dollar Baby" while also co-starring with one of the finest performances of his career, earning a best-actor nomination himself, and voting sentiment could easily come down in his favor.
Best actor: Don Cheadle, "Hotel Rwanda"; Johnny Depp, "Finding Neverland"; Leonardo DiCaprio, "The Aviator"; Clint Eastwood, "Million Dollar Baby"; Jamie Foxx, "Ray."
This is the powerhouse category of the Oscars, more so considering excellent performances by Paul Giamatti in "Sideways," Liam Neeson in "Kinsey" and Javier Bardem in "The Sea Inside" also had been in the running for nominations.
If Foxx were not on the scene, any one of these actors could walk away with the Oscar:
- First-time nominee Cheadle for a compassionate turn as real-life savior Paul Rusesabagina, a hotel manager who sheltered refugees during the Rwandan genocide.
- Depp for a restrained role as Barrie that follows his overboard delivery in "Pirates of the Caribbean: The Curse of the Black Pearl," which earned him a best-actor nomination a year earlier.
- DiCaprio, a past supporting-actor nominee for "What's Eating Gilbert Grape," for a richly varied portrayal of Hughes as aviation pioneer, Hollywood subversive and obsessive-compulsive in the making.
- Eastwood, who directed himself to a best-actor nomination previously with "Unforgiven," for his tough-guy-with-a-heart-of-gold delivery as a boxing trainer faced with a tortuous decision.
But Oscar newcomer Foxx, a double nominee as a supporting-actor pick for "Collateral," is so good that even Ray Charles' son and longtime pal Quincy Jones have said they felt like it was the singer himself on screen instead.
Foxx has dominated lead-actor honors at earlier Hollywood ceremonies, his prizes including a Golden Globe and Screen Actors Guild award.
A few years ago, the actor was best known for his TV sitcom "The Jamie Foxx Show" and his role as a randy guy named Bunz in the 1997 raunchy sex comedy "Booty Call." His two nominated performances have broken Foxx's career wide open.
"Fortunately now, I may not be doing 'Booty Call 2,'" Foxx joked at the Screen Actors Guild Awards. "But if it does go bad, I will be the best Bunz I can be."
Best actress: Annette Bening, "Being Julia"; Catalina Sandino Moreno, "Maria Full of Grace"; Imelda Staunton, "Vera Drake"; Hilary Swank, "Million Dollar Baby"; Kate Winslet, "Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind."
Bening and Swank have had fitful career results since their Oscar matchup five years ago. Swank won best actress for "Boys Don't Cry" over Bening, who had been the favorite for "American Beauty."
This time, Swank is the front-runner, having won the Screen Actors Guild honor and the Golden Globe for dramatic actress with a performance that cuts even deeper than her breakout role in "Boys Don't Cry."
Bening, also a previous Oscar nominee as supporting actress for "The Grifters," took the Globe for actress in a musical or comedy for "Being Julia," playing an aging stage diva coping with duplicitous men and a young rival.
Winslet has been nominated three times previously for period pieces, as best actress in "Titanic" and supporting actress in "Sense and Sensibility" and "Iris." This time, she was picked for an edgy contemporary role as a character existing largely in the mind of her ex-boyfriend, who has paid to have all memory of her erased.
The category's two first-time nominees join the Oscar party at different career stages. Moreno was nominated for her first film, playing a Colombian woman in peril after she signs on to smuggle heroin to New York in pellets in her stomach. Veteran British actress Staunton has dozens of film and TV credits, often in smaller roles in such works as "Shakespeare in Love" and "Much Ado About Nothing." Her nomination comes for the title role in "Vera Drake" as a saintly woman who performs illegal abortions.
The Oscars helped draw audience attention to "Vera Drake," still in its theatrical run, and "Maria Full of Grace," now out on video.
"It's fantastic for this small independent film to be up here in this huge arena, and it does us enormous favors," Staunton said.
Supporting actor: Alan Alda, "The Aviator"; Thomas Haden Church, "Sideways"; Jamie Foxx, "Collateral"; Morgan Freeman, "Million Dollar Baby"; Clive Owen, "Closer."
As an adored Hollywood veteran, Freeman seems like the favorite for his role as a sagelike ex-prizefighter wistfully observing the surrogate father-daughter relationship that blossoms between Eastwood and Swank's characters.
Freeman, previously nominated as best actor for "Driving Miss Daisy" and "The Shawshank Redemption" and supporting actor for "Street Smart," won the Screen Actors Guild prize for "Million Dollar Baby."
"I do know there are a lot of people who seem to be in my corner, and that's, of course, wonderful," Freeman said. "I'm really more interested in the nomination than in the award, because I think the nomination just puts you within a group of outstanding actors."
First-time nominee Owen's role as a brutish lover earned him the Golden Globe. As with Freeman, there is great peer respect for veteran Alda, receiving his first nomination playing a corrupt senator at odds with Hughes. And first-time nominee Church, best known for the sitcom "Wings," weighed in with a supple comic performance as a bridegroom on a final spree.
Foxx is splendid as a cabbie taking on a hit man who has hijacked his taxi, but as the likely best-actor winner, he's just along for the ride in the supporting category.
Supporting actress: Cate Blanchett, "The Aviator"; Laura Linney, "Kinsey"; Virginia Madsen, "Sideways"; Sophie Okonedo, "Hotel Rwanda"; Natalie Portman, "Closer."
Blanchett has the admired-veteran-without-an-Oscar factor in her favor and the ghost of Katharine Hepburn on her side. A past best-actress nominee for "Elizabeth," Blanchett beautifully captures the spirit of Hepburn, the love of Hughes' life.
Nominated for best actress 11 times, Hepburn won a record four acting prizes.
"It's surreal. The academy has obviously honored her, and rightly so, so many times," said Blanchett, who won the Screen Actors Guild honor. "From the grave, she's still being nominated."
Linney, nominated previously as best actress for "You Can Count On Me," dominated her film as the carnally adventurous wife of sex researcher Alfred Kinsey.
The three first-time nominees all deliver striking performances. Portman earned the Golden Globe for her part as a stripper caught in a love quadrangle. Okonedo was gut-wrenching as a wife and mother terrified for her family. And Madsen was a darling of critics for her role as a deceived lover with an insightful view on wine as a metaphor for life.
On The Net:
Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences
www.oscars.org
The Academy Awards on ABC-TV
www.oscar.com
