LAS VEGAS — If Richard Schaefer looked a bit nervous standing near his fighters on a massive stage this week at the MGM Grand, he had good reason.
In a city of high rollers, on one of the biggest betting days of the year, the head of Golden Boy Promotions is taking the biggest gamble of all. He’s got $60 million on the line that Floyd Mayweather Jr. and Canelo Alvarez will not only deliver a great fight, but deliver at the box office, too.
In fact, he’s betting it will be the richest fight ever. “My goal is to break the record,” Schaefer said. “I think we will do 2 million homes, which will make it the single biggest pay-per-view in boxing.”
Schaefer said the fight is such a hot ticket for the celebrity crowdtoo. Magic Johnson wanted some. So did Kobe Bryant – but his choice of ringside seats werelong gone.
But boxing is dead, right?
“Saturday could be a $200 million night,” Schaefer said. “Boxing is hardly a dying sport.”
Not when it has the country’s highest-paid athlete. Mayweather will make at least $41.5 million, bringing his salary this year to $73 million for just two fights. Alvarez, the red-headed star from Mexico, won’t do too badly with a $5 million guarantee.
For Schaefer and Golden Boy it’s a bit more complicated. They get a windfall guarantee from the Showtime network, which Schaefer says doesn’t even cover Mayweather’s purse. And after splitting with cable and satellite companies they’ll end up with about $35 from every house that buys the fight.
Toss in a $19.9 million live gate and a few million here and there from sponsorships and foreign rights sales, and it could be a nice payday indeed for the company Schaefer and Oscar De La Hoya founded.
“I’m going to obviously get some money Monday morning,” Schaefer said. “But I’m going to be out by the time the first bell rings well over $60 million.”
Those in boxing familiar with big fight promotions don’t think Schaefer will have to worry about closing his company’s doors. He begins to make money at about 1.5 million pay-per-view buys, and indications are that this fight will exceed that, though getting to 2 million might be a stretch (Mayweather’s 2007 fight with De La Hoya is the biggest selling boxing pay-per-view at 2.4 million buys).
Mayweather is the big driver behind those sales, of course. He’s the champion in the ring and he’s the champion in selling the fight to those watching at home, though his fight in May against Robert Guerrero was a bit of a box office dud at about 900,000 buys.
But the 23-year-old Alvarez is already a huge star in Mexico and is seen as the biggest challenger to Mayweather since he beat De La Hoya on a split decision in 2009. Oddsmakers favor Mayweather by 2½-1, narrow odds by his standards.
“Canelo is sort of a trailblazer, comparisons are being made to Oscar,” said Stephen Espinoza, the executive vice president of Showtime sports, who formerly worked for Golden Boy. “I believe he’s got the ability to cross over the way Oscar did, especially to nonboxing fans and women.”
Indeed, Alvarez could be a breakout star in boxing if he wins. But what the sport really needs is a competitive and exciting fight that even casual fans will be talking about.
“I’ve been in there with guys who punch hard and guys who try to box,” Mayweather said. “They’re all just the same. They’re opponents in front of me.”
“I have my fans, Floyd has his fans,” Alvarez said. “I always envisioned it was going to be a big fight.”
Of that, there’s little doubt. It will be a big night for boxing, another big night for Money May and almost surely the biggest night of Alvarez’s life.
Whether it’s the richest fight may not even matter.