We are rapidly approaching the one-year anniversary of the war of words between President Trump and North Korea’s Supreme Leader.
There has been much bombast, name calling, threats and counter-threats. Calls for war have been counterbalanced by calls for sanctions or negotiations. One thing there has been very little of, at least in the public dialogue, is logic.
To begin, North Korea has become or is about to become a nuclear power, with a workable Intermediate-range ballistic missile/Intercontinental ballistic missile, and with multiple warhead capacity. Does anyone dispute this?
The U.S. position has been and still is that a nuclear armed North Korea is unacceptable. By way of contrast, what would be the U.S. response to detection of a missile launch from a Russian missile base?
President Trump has called for more and more, heavier and heavier sanctions against North Korea to force it to dismantle its nuclear program. He has strongarmed China, Russia and the U.N. to back his position. North Korea has responded with repeated missle launches and adamant proclamations that it will not be intimidated.
Logically the only possible outcome is war. Why? There are only three possible courses of action.
Kim Jong-un comes to the bargaining table. Is there anyone on this Earth mentally deficient enough to believe a North Korean promise? Well, yes, if the U.S. is granted unlimited access to every square inch of the North, at will, in perpetuity. Does anyone seriously beleive Kim could survive such a humiliating political surrender? His life expectancy would be measured in minutes, not hours. This is the man who has ordered the executions of his own family members and the sytematic imprisonment of hundreds of thousands of his people, where torture and death by starvation is the norm.
Assume the world does follow the U.S. lead and sanctions are imposed and do begin to work. It will not happen overnnight. If it takes six months for the sanctions to become intolerable, then on the fifth month and 30th day, Kim Jong-un will have to launch whatever weapons he has against South Korea, Japan and the U.S. Even worse, he disperses his nuclear arsenal by selling it to Iran, Syria and terrorist organizations around the world.
Finally, the world continues to evade compliance with the various sanctions and North Korea completes its nuclear weapons system. The U.S. is left with the option of a preemptive strike of massive proportions – something, not along the lines of the bombing and invasion of Iraq, but those of D-Day.