Prognosis unknown

Obamacare provisions have been perverted beyond fiscal forecast

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Unsure of Obamacare’s fiscal toll on the nation?

You’re in good company – the nation’s top budgetary scorekeeper doesn’t know either.

The Congressional Budget Office, which four years ago said Obamacare would reduce the deficit by $120 billion over 10 years, now says measuring the law’s fiscal impact is impossible because of all the changes.

“Provisions of the Affordable Care Act significantly modified existing federal programs and made changes to the Internal Revenue Code,” the office wrote in a little-noticed footnote from April. “Isolating the incremental effects of those provisions on previously existing programs and revenues four years after enactment is not possible.”

This is Congress’ own budget adviser giving the verbal equivalent of a shoulder shrug to the central question facing the most sweeping legislation in a generation.

So it’s official: The experts are unsure whether Obamacare – the largest expansion of government-subsidized health care – will reduce or increase the national debt. We’re not experts, but if we were forced to wager, we know exactly where we would place our bet.

The CBO revelation hardly instills confidence in a horribly flawed health care law that is supposed to be President Obama’s crowning achievement.

Moving the Obamacare needle from “positive” to “unknown” could be dismissed as a political maneuver, but the CBO is not a political animal.

The nonpartisan office was created specifically to give Congress the nitty-gritty – information it often doesn’t want to hear. And it has done so quite adroitly for 40 years, with independent studies proving its economic forecasts more accurate than those of either the White House or the Federal Reserve.

One would have to assume the CBO’s original estimate – which helped push fence-sitting Democrats into supporting the radical plan – was based on the best information available. Same for its estimate that Obamacare would only reduce the number of uninsureds from 47 million to 31 million, of which the CBO posits as many as one-third could be illegal aliens.

But even the CBO’s best educated-guessers can’t make heads or tails out of the rolling fiasco Obamacare has become.

The nonprofit Galen Institute, a health and tax policy researcher, says the law has undergone at least 41 significant changes since passage – 23 made unilaterally by the Obama administration, 16 through Congress and two by the Supreme Court.

And, of course, there’s the multiple missteps Obama & Co. have bumbled through since the botched rollout. The latest gaffe is the discovery that 4 million people have data discrepancies in their paperwork.

That means roughly half of all enrollees either accidentally or intentionally provided false information about their income, citizenship or other personal data. Imagine that.

Even when this law “works,” it doesn’t work.

If the CBO can’t figure out which direction this labyrinth law is headed, where are Americans worried about the nation’s fiscal health supposed to turn for guidance?

To the Democratic policy wonks and lobbyists who helped draft this abomination in secret?

To the Democratic lawmakers who rammed the law through Congress so we could “find out what’s in it”?

To the Democratic president who told us that if we liked our existing doctors and health insurance, we could keep them?

Sorry. We’ll take a rain check on that.

Comments (26) Add comment
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ymnbde
10669
Points
ymnbde 06/10/14 - 05:00 am
7
0
the VA shows us what is going to happen

the prognosis is known
you can break a complex problem down to its components
but this large problem is known to everyone
government bureaucracy is incompetent
schools prove it
the VA hospitals prove it
yep, some are educated (they educate themselves)
but how are you going to treat your own cancer?
we all know how this ends...
and we've got no one to blame but ourselves
and democrats

Riverman1
93710
Points
Riverman1 06/10/14 - 05:24 am
7
0
Do Not Resuscitate

I remember to this day the video of the old folks at the assisted living facility in PA where the Democratic Congressman was telling them the then proposed Obamacare would save the country money. They dang neared laughed him out of the building. They knew the truth even if the paid government brains at the CBO a that time didn’t.

Sophisticated
444
Points
Sophisticated 06/10/14 - 06:19 am
2
9
The Southern Republican

The Southern Republican defies GOP in coming out for the Medicaid Expansion to Obamacare.

Many have been saying this could happen. As reality meets rhetoric, reality ultimately wins. Sometime one must bring reality into the fold kicking and screaming. A few months ago, a article was wrote " When does lying about Obamacare become immoral and evil?" The simple answer is now. Waiting until people die makes it effectively murder. Republicans are starting to feel the pain of their intransigence and spite. A few months ago a self - described Republican Fox News addict from Nirth Carolina urged Americans to sign up for Obamacare. In Belhaven,North Carolina Republican Mayor Adam O'Neal flanked by Moral Monday's leader Rev. William Barber urged his fellow Republicans to take the Medicaid Expansion to Obamacare. " I am a Republican. I am standing amongst a bunch of Democrats," Mayor O'Neal said. " No party is right all of the time. We all make mistakes." Mayor O'Neal sums it up well. " I hope Republican governors who're up for re - election, in November, reconsider and decide to focus on federal reform too meet our concerns and don't let our rural hospital s suffer and our poor suffer," Mayor O'Neal said. " Don't let our hospital close. Rural citizens dying shouldn't be soldiers of our legislature's defiance."

Bodhisattva
7210
Points
Bodhisattva 06/10/14 - 06:11 am
2
10
Half of the states' Governors

Half of the states' Governors are working against it so people like those of us in SC and Ga. can't even use it (little things like qualifying for tax credits, but by God let someone spit out a baby and they get a deduction right off the bat). You'd still go to private hospitals and doctors so the VA nonsense is just that, nonsense. Of course many more rural hospitals will close down since SC and Ga. refuse to participate, and have been begging for the states to sign up, but they'll soon be gone so it won't matter, you'll just have to drive farther to see a Dr. Amazing how the GOP works their rear ends off to screw something up and then whines, "See, we told you it wouldn't work." Party before people, as always for the GOP. Unless, of course, they're rich people and can fill their campiagn coffers. Heck, Georgia's Gov., who says the state can't afford the ACA (that's free for 3 years, then the state only has to pay 10% after that) might even make up a new job for you like state Sen. Cecil Staton (R) that the University System hired for his newly created $165,000 a year administrative job and old Chip Rogers who, sadly no longer has his $150,000 a year job Nathan made up for him with PBS. Ga. can't afford no cost healthcare but all of a sudden needs all of these new 6 figure jobs? Go figure.

Riverman1
93710
Points
Riverman1 06/10/14 - 07:03 am
8
0
Sophisticated and Bod should

Sophisticated and Bod should find themselves someone who needs medical care and pay for it. Maybe they will feel better?

Bizkit
35567
Points
Bizkit 06/10/14 - 07:12 am
6
0
Bod those states that didn't

Bod those states that didn't sign up aren't "working against the law" but just following their constitutional right to opt out as the SCOTUS has ruled. You can't have it both ways-Hooray the SCOTUS allowed the ACA as a tax, but then scoff at their ruling states can opt out. Like Obama says it's the law of the land so he supports it. Making up positions you mean like Obama and all his Presidential czar's that make over 100K a year-did you complain about that?

Rhetor
1082
Points
Rhetor 06/10/14 - 07:12 am
1
8
wishful thinking

As evidence for the conservatives' ideologically motivated opinions becomes harder and harder to find, wishful thinking replaces truth. How sad. For years, conservatives have wished harm and evil for those unfortunate people who could not get health insurance. The ACA has succeeded, not perfectly, but beyond anyone's expectations, and your response is this? The conservative argument is that "The ACA must fail, therefore it has failed." That it is actually a success is something conservatives can't fathom, and so they hide from reality.

deestafford
31934
Points
deestafford 06/10/14 - 07:17 am
5
0
In essence, CBO is saying....

In essence, CBO is saying, "Obama has screwed up Obamacare so badly we can't even figure it out."

It's obvious from the comments above that the left does not have the foggiest idea where all this "free" money comes from. I'll type real slooooowwww so you can understand:

It...
comes...
from....
money...
paid...
by....
hardworking...
taxpayers...
and...
money...
borrowed....
from....
Communist...
countries.

Bizkit
35567
Points
Bizkit 06/10/14 - 07:14 am
5
0
Riverman it reminds me of the

Riverman it reminds me of the Scarecrow from the Wizard of Oz.

Bizkit
35567
Points
Bizkit 06/10/14 - 07:16 am
4
1
Rhetor a strawman

Rhetor a strawman argument:"As evidence for the conservatives' ideologically motivated opinions becomes harder and harder to find, wishful thinking replaces truth. How sad. For years, conservatives have wished harm and evil for those unfortunate people who could not get health insurance. " That's just horse manure,that is like I can say you wish harm to conservatives and especially the tea party. Ohhh your a bad man.

Bizkit
35567
Points
Bizkit 06/10/14 - 07:17 am
4
0
There is absolutely no

There is absolutely no evidence or way to tell if the ACA is or will be a successful law according to the CBO. That's settled science. period.

seenitB4
97584
Points
seenitB4 06/10/14 - 08:44 am
5
1
I'm one of those paying for this mess

We will lose OUR hard earned working life for benefits from our company...sooo, we will pay after this year for all THE GOOFS THAT DIDN'T WORK 40 YEARS... we pay & they play..
You better believe people are MAD AS HELL.

Bizkit
35567
Points
Bizkit 06/10/14 - 09:39 am
4
0
A law that is no longer

A law that is no longer accountable or even understandable is a dismal failure by any logical persons thinking. Course I know.

Rhetor
1082
Points
Rhetor 06/10/14 - 09:46 am
0
4
Hi!

Bizket, I wish no harm to the Tea Party or the conservatives. I just would like them to lose elections and return to private life, where I hope they will flourish. Have a great day.

dichotomy
37484
Points
dichotomy 06/10/14 - 09:52 am
3
0
"You better believe people

"You better believe people are MAD AS HELL"

Oh, and just wait until they see the Obamacare rate hikes that are coming next year.......and the former full time jobs that will be part time jobs when all of the businesses are finally forced to comply with Obamacare.

They have tried to minimize the negative impacts until after the elections but the full impact has to come sometime and it is going to be a disaster for the middle class working people. Just like the recent "ram down our throats" decision to crucify the power companies. Just wait until you see where your electric bill is going.....just as Obama flips you the bird and says "I'm outta here".

Little Lamb
49066
Points
Little Lamb 06/10/14 - 11:29 am
3
0
Tax Credits?

Bodhisattva posted:

. . . people like those of us in SC and Ga. can't even use it (little things like qualifying for tax credits. . . .

Please help me to understand your post, Bod. What tax credits did the Affordable Care Act create for people like us that we cannot qualify for? I'd at least like to learn what the qualification requirements are and try to qualify some day.

ymnbde
10669
Points
ymnbde 06/10/14 - 11:32 am
5
0
rhetor, what sort of thinking produces this?

"For years, conservatives have wished harm and evil for those unfortunate people who could not get health insurance"
seems straight from "The True Believer" by Eric Hoffer
the entire book could have been modeled from your quote
and that isn't a compliment

Bizkit
35567
Points
Bizkit 06/10/14 - 12:33 pm
3
0
I think it's time Americans

I think it's time Americans rebel. In order to deal with Obama's no immigration reform and just hiring lawyer for illegal immigrant kids they will have to bail this out and cost the tax payer more. Time for Rep to just NOT pay their taxes, as Dems already mostly get away with, and starve the govt by attrition. They can't arrest every tax payer-the system would collapse in a month-especially since so many Dems already don't pay their taxes.

carcraft
28475
Points
carcraft 06/10/14 - 01:42 pm
1
0
We had a presentation on

We had a presentation on billing for services under the ACA . This is going to be a mess . I won't get into much but how your hospital gets AND HOW IT IS RATED IN THE CARE IT PROVIDES depends on how well the Doctors can code diagnosis. This will be determined by the people analyzing the codes for payment. So dispute being a superior clinician you could get a bad rating and be banned from the net work because some billing clerk thinks your patients have to long a stay!

corgimom
38451
Points
corgimom 06/10/14 - 05:42 pm
0
0
seenit, we feel your pain.

seenit, we feel your pain.

My husband was promised benefits all along. As of last year, there will be absolutely NO retirement benefits. None.

And it's perfectly legal.

Who do you think the laws were written for, individuals or corporations?

corgimom
38451
Points
corgimom 06/10/14 - 05:44 pm
0
1
"So dispute being a superior

"So dispute being a superior clinician you could get a bad rating and be banned from the net work because some billing clerk thinks your patients have to long a stay!"

It's been like that for years under Medicare, carcraft. This is nothing new, and if Medicare providers can handle it, your employer will too.

corgimom
38451
Points
corgimom 06/10/14 - 05:48 pm
0
2
Little Lamb, small businesses

Little Lamb, small businesses are entitled to a tax credit under the ACA provisions in the tax code.

This is why the cost can't be calculated, this editorial by the ACES illustrates their lack of understanding complex issues. It's not cut and dried. Nobody can determine at this point how many small businesses will qualify for the tax credit until the returns are filed, because this is June.

But I guess according to the ACES, they should've just guessed- but if they guessed wrong, the ACES would've had something to say about THAT, too.

corgimom
38451
Points
corgimom 06/10/14 - 05:50 pm
0
2
And LL, there's this- Can

And LL, there's this-

Can provisions of the Affordable Care Act help you pay for health insurance coverage?

Yes! Starting January 1, 2014, you are generally required to have adequate health insurance or pay a penalty.

The good news is that if your income is within certain limits, you may qualify for an advanced premium tax credit to help pay for that coverage. This credit is paid directly to your insurance company as a subsidy.

How do I know if I qualify for a premium tax credit (subsidy)?

You may be able to get this tax credit if your employer doesn’t offer health insurance, or if they do, it covers less than 60% of covered benefits, or the premiums would cost you more than 9.5% of your annual household income.

To qualify, you must purchase insurance coverage through your state’s “marketplace” – the website for insurance.

Your income must not be too low or too high. You cannot get the credit if you qualify for government programs like Medicare and Medicaid. You are only eligible for the credit if your household income is above between 100% and 400% of the federal poverty level.

To see if you may qualify for the credit, use TaxACT’s Health Care Tax Credit Calculator.

So yes, Bodh is indeed correct, there are tax credits under the ACA.

carcraft
28475
Points
carcraft 06/10/14 - 06:21 pm
1
0
Corgimom, I have worked in

Corgimom, I have worked in health care for over thirty years. Many of the doctors at the meeting have a long history in health care. The institution that funded and required attendance at the meeting is one of the oldest hospitals in Augusta. Now if it has "always been that way" why bother with the presentation? Oh an expert at school lunches and health care? We are now being rated as to out comes by non health care providers, ie billing clerks. So if you have an elderly patient with pneumonia you get 3 days and say $3,000 to cure them. But if if takes longer because it is aspirational pneumonia you get 5 days and $5,000. So if you bill regular pneumonia and it takes 5 days even though the patient is cured you get dinged. The non physician folks are the ones that look at the CPT 10 codes to determine length of stay. So if you bill for pneumonia cc and refux your golden! So Physicians are going to spend more times coding and less time in patient care to insure adequate billing for care. Our computer system (dispite it always being this way) isn't set up for it and it is one of the major systems in use today. Our IT people are modifying it so more diagnosis are captured.

bubba2014
464
Points
bubba2014 06/10/14 - 07:43 pm
2
0
" Many of the doctors at the
Unpublished

" Many of the doctors at the meeting have a long history in health care.'
@carcraft - Many doctors are not taking any new Medicare or Medicaid patients. Many are retiring rather than spend a lot of money on their computer system as is required by Obamacare. In a few years the ER will be crowded because many will not be able to find a doctor.

carcraft
28475
Points
carcraft 06/10/14 - 08:15 pm
1
0
Bongo bubba, or the Doctors

Bongo bubba, or the Doctors and hospitals will be out of network meaning trips to find physicians and facilities in ACA networks. We have already seen this on other states!

KSL
143858
Points
KSL 06/10/14 - 08:28 pm
0
0
It is pretty much a given

It is pretty much a given that you will not be able to see the best of the best anymore.

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