Romney wins

The Augusta Chronicle Editorial Staff supposes three electoral outcomes

  • Follow Editorials

When even Democrats are conceding that Republican Mitt Romney convincingly won Wednesday night’s presidential debate, that speaks volumes – especially to undecided voters.

Many polls have shown the candidates as either statistically neck-and-neck, or with President Obama gaining an edge. But a pile of polls as high as Mt. Everest won’t matter one whit on Election Day, when – in that cherished voting booth – the only thing between an undecided voter and the button is not some nosy pollster, but gut instinct.

And that gut instinct is this: People know they’re not better off now than they were four years ago.

Poverty is up. The Misery Index – the merged figures of unemployment and inflation – is up. A $16 trillion federal debt is stomping our nation’s credit rating into the dirt. And even if you’re one of the lucky ones to see your income go up since 2008,

it buys less – gasoline and food prices are through the roof.

It’s tough to envision a plurality of voters thinking, “Sure – give me four more years of that.”

Unable to run on a successful record, Obama is the face of a re-election campaign whose job is to erect a Potemkin village of American success. The strategy: If enough voters can be brainwashed, just long enough, into thinking that Obama’s policies have improved our nation, then the election is a cinch for the incumbent.

But two University of Colorado political science professors unveiled an analysis in August that predicted a Romney presidential victory in November.

Their model doesn’t rely on which candidate is considered cooler, or which candidate Hollywood likes best, or which candidate playfully swats at the most softball questions on The View or The Late Show with David Letterman. The model relies on a huge complement of economic data, such as state and national unemployment figures and changes in per-capita income. That analysis successfully predicted the winner of every presidential race since 1980.

It’s not without its flaws, though. The analysis, as of this writing, relies on summer economic data. Fresher figures would yield more accurate results.

Also, the model is willing to give virtually all swing states to Romney. The professors’ assertion that Romney can take Minnesota, Wisconsin and New Hampshire strains almost any conservative’s Pollyanna attitude. So give those states to Obama. Give Colorado to Obama, too.

But even with those tweaks, that still gives Romney 286 votes in the Electoral College to Obama’s 252 under the professors’ model.

Every analysis of an election is a carefully stacked apple cart that easily can be overturned by reality’s variables – such as Wednesday night’s debate.

Two more of those variables – the undecided voter and gut instinct – can give the race to Romney.

Comments (10) Add comment
ADVISORY: Users are solely responsible for opinions they post here and for following agreed-upon rules of civility. Posts and comments do not reflect the views of this site. Posts and comments are automatically checked for inappropriate language, but readers might find some comments offensive or inaccurate. If you believe a comment violates our rules, click the "Flag as offensive" link below the comment.
willie7
984
Points
willie7 10/06/12 - 11:52 pm
4
10
If Romney is elected , the
Unpublished

If Romney is elected , the country will fall and rioting will prevail in the streets. The Republicans put us in this "mess" and if another Republican is elected, we will have more "mess. "

Conservative Man
5577
Points
Conservative Man 10/07/12 - 02:11 am
7
3
willie...

...I hope you aren't able to vote, but my guess is you are....

To that I will say that this country is headed downhill faster than Rosie O'Donnell on a set of slippery ski's to the nearest Golden Corral...

And it has EVERYTHING to do with Barack Hussein Obama and his sycophants who think he is "sort of a God", who had to "step down" into the presidency.

When will the people who worship this political hack see the reality that he is nothing more than an empty suit who uses demagoguery and socialist rhetoric to further his cause?...

I fear that when the people who voted for this charlatan see the truth...it will be too late.....

Young Fred
17860
Points
Young Fred 10/07/12 - 03:38 am
7
2
OK Willie

Lets ignore whom was in congress, and go with your supposition. The "reps put us in this mess, and if another is elected; will we have more "mess""

Define mess and tell us how your guy will be the anti-mess candidate.

I await with baited ear!

Young Fred
17860
Points
Young Fred 10/07/12 - 06:54 am
5
1
“It’s not without its flaws, though.”

There is one scenario that the AC didn't cover. The possibility of civil unrest if the skewed pre-voting polls don't hold true on election day. Lets face it, most are going to believe Chris Matthews and company, and by God, if it don't come true, and the crowd is faced with having to purchase their own cell phones, there could be “heap big” civil unrest.

omnomnom
3964
Points
omnomnom 10/07/12 - 08:18 am
2
1
"And that gut instinct is

"And that gut instinct is this: People know they’re not better off now than they were four years ago."

check out the incomes of the top 10% vs the rest of America and see who's doing well and who's not.

Gravity come on and help us with the trickle down theory... which to borrow a phrase from Rep. Paul Broun may or may not be "(a) lie(s) straight from the pit of hell"

Lord help us when either of these foolios get elected.

TParty
6003
Points
TParty 10/07/12 - 09:52 am
1
1
Four years ago- The DOW had a

Four years ago- The DOW had a 500-point loss bringing the Dow's two-day slump to nearly 900 points, as the Federal Reserve's plan to loosen credit markets failed to temper investor pessimism.

This is an indication of how bad things were finically, with loses to the stock market, jobs, confidence, etc...

Just saying- October 7th 2012, is much better than October 7th 2008... .So I'd be careful with the "People know they’re not better off now than they were four years ago."

Young Fred
17860
Points
Young Fred 10/07/12 - 10:44 am
3
3
Really?

Omnomnom would have us believe the common man is doing worse, because the top 10% is doing better (according to him/her). The classic zero-sum-game argument. No, I'm serious, they're still using that tired, worn out, decades old argument.

Tparty would like to take two snap shots out of the stock market and make assumptions from that. Just saying.

TParty
6003
Points
TParty 10/07/12 - 10:55 am
1
2
YOu can look at anything four

YOu can look at anything four years from now- when Obama was not President, and compare them to now when he is. I'm just saying- be careful when using the "4 years ago" saying. The economy was seriously collapsing, with 750,000 jobs being lost in a month four years ago. Today- we have ~100,000 plus jobs a month, positive numbers. Put that on a number line- and you can figure out the difference between the two.

omnomnom
3964
Points
omnomnom 10/07/12 - 10:57 am
2
1
Young Fred

Well, thanks to QE3, I suppose anything is possible. Yeah I suppose the zero sum argument is only valid if money had a constant value.

But thanks to democrats in the 1930s and republicans in the 60s-70s our money has no value other than what the government dictates (or maybe the federal reserve?)

At any rate look at all of the reports saying the middle class has been decimated, and the richest 10% getting richer.

Where is the money going then? The government? Ok. And it spends it on... military/social/infrastructure programs... which go to, follow me here, corporations, individuals, and in far too few instances the actual steel, cement and fiber optic that holds this country together.

Be it because of government policy or corporate policy, the concentration of wealth in the hands of the few makes our country ripe for revolution/ or subversion.

Look back to America in the 1890's and see how close the U.S.A. came to becoming a socialist nation then.

Look to the French revolution if you're worried about "revisionist historians"

Young Fred
17860
Points
Young Fred 10/07/12 - 11:38 am
0
1
Look to the French revolution if you're worried about "revisioni

I “feel you” on that.

I'm just saying we have to be careful with this class-warfare mentality (speaking of the French revolution). A gain in the top 10 doesn't automatically mean the middle is getting screwed.

If you're really concerned, champion the reduction of government expenditures, as you pointed out. Bureaucratic red tape just adds a whole other level (or two, or three, or four) ripe for exploitation, graft, and corruption. I would like for my money to be stolen as efficiently as possible, thank you.

nowhine
5373
Points
nowhine 10/07/12 - 06:00 pm
2
1
Rioting in the streets after Romney win.

What gives Obama supporters the right to riot if their man loses? Romney supporters have more more incentive to initiate and support immediate impeachment or at the extreme, a military coup to save the the country from the ruin that an Obama win will bring this country.

Back to Top

Search Augusta jobs