Much can change in the next month, particularly as close as the polling is in this race. And the debate Wednesday night seems to have done just that.
But up until the debate, most analyses pointed to an Obama victory in November.
National polls are nearly meaningless. What’s important is how the candidates stand in each state, particularly the swing states of Florida, Virginia, Ohio and several others. Voters elect our president state-by-state through the Electoral College. It takes 270 electoral votes to win.
As of last week, Moody’s Analytics had Obama winning 303.
Based on pre-debate polls in seven swing states from RealClearPolitics.com, political website Politico.com had Obama winning 332 electoral votes.
Counting the sure votes and those in the “leaning” category, The New York Times has Obama at 237 votes – needing only 33 more from any combination of nine toss-up states containing a total of 110 electoral votes.
Examiner.com argues that Obama starts with a base of 251 “safe” electoral votes, if you include Pennsylvania, which isn’t certain but seems likely. Romney starts with a base of 181 red-state votes.
The Huffington Post website notes that even if Romney gained in the polls enough to win the closest “lean Obama” states, he’d still lose to Obama 271-267.
In the Huffington Post scenario, the map of the United States is roughly three-quarters red, or Republican. And Romney still loses.
In short, this election seems to be Barack Obama’s to lose over the next month.
Given that he hasn’t lost it already – with record-high unemployment, the worst recovery in American history, billions thrown away on bankrupt energy startups, security scandals on our border and at our embassies, record deficits now and mammoth taxes on the horizon, massive foreign policy upheavals and more – it’s hard to see what might get in his way now.
At this point, the numbers are still on his side.