Staff Writer
Though flu activity remains low elsewhere, it remains at a higher level in Georgia and South Carolina, a sign that more might be coming, an Augusta flu expert said.
Several clues point to what might be a third wave from the novel influenza A H1N1 virus, or what might turn out to be nothing, said flu expert James Wilde of Medical College of Georgia Hospital.
No state was reporting the highest level of flu activity, widespread, for the week ending Feb. 6, but six -- including Georgia and South Carolina -- were at the next-highest level, regional, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
Most of the remaining flu activity is concentrated in the Southeast, noted Wilde, an associate professor of pediatric emergency medicine and a member of the MCG and statewide pandemic flu planning task forces.
If you look at the map of flu activity, "this looks a lot like the map did in August," he said. That's when a second wave of flu activity erupted out of the Southeast as children returned to school.
There are a few other troubling signs, Wilde said:
- The line charting flulike illness in Georgia "is not going down anymore," he said. "It's leveling or slightly going up."
- Georgia reported four deaths from flu for the week that ended Tuesday, after averaging one the previous two weeks and none for four weeks before that, according to the Georgia Division of Public Health.
- South Carolina saw a slight increase in flu activity, going from local to regional status, with the level of flulike illness going from 0.69 percent to 1.3 percent and the number of hospitalizations climbing from six to 10, according to the state Department of Health and Environmental Control.
- A number of pediatricians and primary care providers are reporting several positive rapid tests for flu in their offices in the past couple of weeks, Wilde said.
Wilde called all of these factors "suspicious."
What might mitigate the next wave is the number of people who have already been infected.
The CDC estimated that by Jan. 16 about 57 million people had come down with the new virus, with nearly 12,000 deaths. Many of the uninfected elderly appear to be less susceptible to it.
"Much of the fuel for this fire has already been consumed," Wilde said.
Add to that the number who have been vaccinated -- the CDC estimates it is about 70 million -- and the number of susceptible left is diminished.
"It's quite possible we may not have any more flu this season," Wilde said.
The next two weeks will likely tell, he said.
