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Poll indicates Georgia might see runoff races

By Aaron Gould Sheinin and Jeremy Redmon

The Atlanta Journal-Constitution

Sunday, Oct. 31, 2010

Comments (2)

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Republicans lead in Georgia's top statewide races entering Tuesday, but three contests could be headed toward runoffs, a new poll conducted for The Augusta Chronicle and the Georgia Newspaper Partnership shows.

In the race for governor, Republican Nathan Deal leads Democrat Roy Barnes 47 percent to 40 percent, with Libertarian John Monds getting the support of 6 percent. Seven percent are undecided, according to the poll conducted Tuesday through Thursday by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research Inc.

A runoff is possible, but not a sure thing, said Brad Coker, the managing director of Mason-Dixon.

"I'd say you can't really tell," Coker said of the potential for a Nov. 30 runoff. "It's inconclusive."

To read the rest of the article, visit the Web site of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution.

Bad news for Democrats

The poll results are similar to other recent polls, University of Georgia political science professor Charles Bullock said.
"It continues the bad news for Democrats," he said.

With Deal holding a seven-point lead and only 7 percent of voters undecided, Barnes has virtually no chance to win or even force a runoff, he said.

Fifty-nine percent of respondents said the candidates' positions on issues are more important than character or integrity, while 16 percent said the opposite.

"That helps us understand why the various problems Nathan's had don't have any effect on him," Bullock said. "People don't care."

The Obama administration and the Democrat-controlled Congress' health care reform and economic stimulus package made 56 percent of respondents say they are less likely to vote for Democrats in state and local elections.

Twenty-two percent said they are more likely to vote for Democrats.

"He is an anchor pulling down fellow Democrats," Bullock said of President Obama. "You can't vote against Obama, so you vote against his partisans."
- Blake Aued, Morris News Service

Georgia Newspaper Partnership poll

If the 2010 general election for governor were held today would you vote for:
SEX PARTY ID RACE
STATE MEN WOMEN DEM REP IND WHITE BLACK
Nathan Deal (R) 47% 51% 40% 3% 84% 45% 62% 3%
Roy Barnes (D) 40% 37% 44% 86% 5% 38% 26% 84%
John Monds (L) 6% 6% 4% 4% 6% 8% 6% 2%
Undecided 7% 6% 12% 7% 5% 9% 6% 11%

Thinking about the gubernatorial race between Democrat Roy Barnes and Republican Nathan Deal, which one of the following factors is more important to you?
SEX PARTY ID RACE
STATE MEN WOMEN DEM REP IND WHITE BLACK
Issues* 59% 62% 57% 53% 64% 60% 59% 58%
Personal integrity 16% 16% 16% 21% 13% 16% 14% 24%
Both 18% 19% 17% 17% 19% 18% 20% 11%
Not sure 7% 3% 10% 9% 4% 6% 7% 7%
* Such as the economy, taxes and education

If the 2010 general election for Georgia's U.S. Senate seat were held today, would you vote for:
SEX PARTY ID RACE
STATE MEN WOMEN DEM REP IND WHITE BLACK
Johnny Isakson (R) 56% 59% 53% 9% 92% 60% 74% 5%
Mike Thurmond (D) 33% 30% 36% 79% 1% 24% 16% 82%
Chuck Donovan (L) 4% 5% 3% 3% 3% 7% 5% 2%
Undecided 7% 6% 8% 9% 4% 9% 5% 11%

If the 2010 general election for lieutenant governor were held today would you vote for:
SEX PARTY ID RACE
STATE MEN WOMEN DEM REP IND WHITE BLACK
Casey Cagle(R) 51% 54% 49% 6% 83% 59% 65% 8%
Carol Porter (D) 33% 31% 35% 75% 7% 20% 22% 66%
Dan Barber (L) 4% 5% 3% 4% 2% 9% 4% 3%
Undecided 12% 10% 13% 15% 8% 12% 9% 23%

If the 2010 general election for attorney general were held today would you vote for:
SEX PARTY ID RACE
STATE MEN WOMEN DEM REP IND WHITE BLACK
Sam Olens(R) 46% 51% 41% 4% 80% 46% 60% 3%
Ken Hodges (D) 34% 28% 39% 75% 5% 27% 20% 78%
Don Smart (L) 4% 7% 2% 2% 1% 10% 5% -
Undecided 16% 14% 18% 19% 14% 17% 15% 19%

If the 2010 general election for State School Superintendent were held today would you vote for:
SEX PARTY ID RACE
STATE MEN WOMEN DEM REP IND WHITE BLACK
John Barge (R) 39% 44% 35% 6% 65% 39% 52% 1%
Joe Martin (D 29% 26% 32% 63% 7% 22% 18% 61%
Kira Griffiths Willis (L) 5% 6% 4% 5% 3% 8% 6% 2%
Undecided 27% 24% 29% 26% 25% 31% 24% 36%

If you were voting today in the U.S. House race in your congressional district, would vote for:
SEX PARTY ID RACE
STATE MEN WOMEN DEM REP IND WHITE BLACK
The Republican 55% 63% 48% 4% 90% 64% 72% 4%
The Democrat 33% 26% 40% 79% 4% 24% 16% 84%
Another party 5% 6% 4% 9% - 6% 6% 3%
Undecided 7% 5% 8% 8% 6% 6% 6% 9%

If you were voting today in the state legislative races in your district, would vote for:
SEX PARTY ID RACE
STATE MEN WOMEN DEM REP IND WHITE BLACK
The Republican 52% 55% 49% 4% 91% 52% 69% 2%
The Democrat 33% 29% 37% 83% 1% 19% 17% 80%
Another party 4% 6% 2% 6% 1% 8% 4% 3%
Split 4% 4% 4% 2% 2% 10% 3% 7%
Undecided 7% 6% 8% 5% 5% 11% 7% 8%

Will your opinion of the Obama administration and the Democratic controlled Congress on national issues such as the economic stimulus plan and health care reform make you more likely to vote for Democratic candidates in state and local races in Georgia, less likely to vote for Democrats locally, or will it have no real effect on your vote?
SEX PARTY ID RACE
STATE MEN WOMEN DEM REP IND WHITE BLACK
More likely 22% 18% 26% 53% 3% 11% 11% 56%
Less likely 56% 62% 51% 4% 90% 67% 74% 1%
No effect 19% 18% 20% 37% 7% 19% 13% 37%
Not sure 3% 2% 3% 6% - 3% 2% 6%

About the poll: The Georgia Newspaper Partnership poll was conducted by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research Inc. of Washington, D.C., Oct. 26-28. A total of 625 likely voters were interviewed by telephone. Voters were randomly selected and distributed across Georgia. The margin for error is plus or minus 4 percentage points, which means that there is a 95 percent probability that the "true" figure would fall within that range if the entire population were sampled. The margin for error is higher for any subgroup, such as regional or gender groupings.

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dickworth1 10/31/10 - 04:00 am

Once again, the liberal press

Once again, the liberal press is trying to give hope to the democraps and sway those undecided votes their way. Georgians, will vote for their candidate and the heck with these stupid polls, people all over the country are fed up with Washington and intend to send a message loud and clear, if you are the winner, do what the people want not what the party wants or when your reelection comes up, it's bye-bye to you. The
citizens need to hold all politicians to what the voters want and not what is good for either party.

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Dixieman 10/31/10 - 07:13 am

What on earth is the AC doing

What on earth is the AC doing collaborating (carefully chosen verb) with the monstrous family Christmas newsletter of the Jimmy Carter family, the AJC? AJC should be avoided like the plague unless you are Cynthia McKinney.

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Little Lamb 10/31/10 - 04:39 pm

Look at this ridiculous

Look at this ridiculous statement from up above:

The poll results are similar to other recent polls, University of Georgia political science professor Charles Bullock said. "It continues the bad news for Democrats," he said. With Deal holding a seven-point lead and only 7 percent of voters undecided, Barnes has virtually no chance to win or even force a runoff, he said.

What in the world is Charles Bullock smoking? Barnes is in second place. The second place person does not force anything. It is John Monds who is forcing the run-off. Bullock has been out in the sun too long.