Augusta will lose jobs in 2009

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The head of Georgia State University's Economic Forecasting Center says Augusta will continue to gain jobs for the rest of the year and then begin a slow decline in 2009.

Last year, Georgia State's economist Rajeev Dhawan predicted Augusta would have a slow-growing economy but would not stall because of the national economic turmoil.

Augusta's employment grew 0.4 percent over the spring months, which represents 950 jobs. That rate is slower than the 1.1 percent seen in 2007.

Mr. Dhawan released his national and state economic forecast Wednesday, saying Georgia's job picture continues to look bleak despite gains in education, health care and government jobs. The problem stems from the housing downturn, which has had a negative ripple effect throughout the state.

Mr. Dhawan said most metropolitan areas in Georgia will exhibit slower employment growth in 2008, with Albany, Columbus, Dalton and Macon seeing job losses. Augusta's meager job growth came mainly from an increase in professionals, health care and retail workers, he said.

"Given that our forecast for the national and local economy is bleak and Augusta has started to show moderation in its quarter-over-quarter employment growth, we forecast a slower 0.3 percent growth for 2008, consistent with a statewide slowdown," Mr. Dhawan wrote.

Manufacturing and construction lead the way in local job losses, about 760 jobs this spring, he explained.

"For 2009, we forecast a 0.2 percent decline in annual employment level," Mr. Dhawan said.

The economist does not have good news for the state, expecting the job losses to add up to 35,300 by the end of the year.

"In 2009, we'll see the decline slow to 2,600 losses before the recovery strengthens in 2010, where we can expect to see 61,700 new jobs."

Reach Tim Rausch at (706) 823-3352 or timothy.rausch@augustachronicle.com.

REPORT HIGHLIGHTS


According to Georgia State University's Economic Forecasting Center:


- For calendar year 2008, the state will lose 35,300 jobs. In 2009, 13,900 job losses are expected in the first half of the year, followed by 11,300 job gains in the second half.


- The job market recovery will strengthen in 2010, when 61,700 jobs will be created.


- Most metro areas in Georgia will exhibit slower employment growth in 2008. Albany, Columbus, Dalton and Macon will see job losses.


- Atlanta's total housing permits will plummet by posting a 52.1 percent drop in 2008. Permit activity will again decrease in 2009, but at a slower rate of 5 percent. It will inch up in 2010, posting an 18.4 percent increase.

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4725
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4725 08/28/08 - 09:55 am
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adp, bass pro shop complex,

adp, bass pro shop complex, car max, fort gordon nsa project moving folks in monthly... that's thousands of new jobs !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

localjay
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localjay 08/28/08 - 11:27 am
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This guy Dhawan has misses

This guy Dhawan has misses Augusta's economic forecast every year. Every time he predicts negative, Augusta has strong growth. For the Chronicle to run a negative story without checking the facts and all the excellent things happening in Augusta is too bad. The headline is an attention-grabbing negative headline without merit. "4725" is right...thousands of new jobs and more to come next year. Forget this Dhawan guy. C'mon Chronicle. Quit being so negative!

Tim Rausch
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Tim Rausch 08/28/08 - 10:15 pm
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So negative? "...in 2010,

So negative? "...in 2010, where we can expect to see 61,700 new jobs." (Sounds pretty positive to me.) Misses the forecast every year? In 2007, he predicted our job growth would slow down in 2008. It went from 1.1 percent to 0.4 percent. (So he was right.) If you're going to throw rocks at the Chronicle because you don't like the message, shouldn't you at least read the whole message?

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