Wilmington N.C. First Baptist Church member Ken McCall checks out the historic sign in front of the church Friday morning, September 6, 1996, after Hurricane passed through the town the night before ripping off the church's steeple.Digital Photo by Bob Rives/Staff

Hurricane activity must really be picking up as the century draws to a close, right? Wrong.

Web-posted Sept. 7, 1996

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By Michael Cass
Columbia County Bureau

Bertha and Fran crashed the 1996 summer beach party. Their older siblings, Hugo, Andrew and Opal, were even ruder a few years back.

Hurricane activity must really be picking up as the century draws to a close, right?

Wrong.

The raging, destructive storms of recent years are just part of a normal hurricane cycle, observers say. Although 1995 was the second-most active year on record for named storms, the 1990s are on pace to be the slowest decade of the century for hurricanes that actually strike U.S. soil.

``For the '90s as a whole, if anything, the activity has been close to normal, if not below,'' said John Knaff, a doctoral student in atmospheric science at Colorado State University. ``But 1995 made up for that.

``Last year was extremely active,'' added Mr. Knaff, who studies under Dr. William Gray, a well-known predictor of hurricane activity. ``This year's probably a little above normal.''

According to the National Hurricane Center, 151 hurricanes hit U.S. land from 1900 to 1989, an average of almost 17 per decade. But just seven have struck so far in the 1990s, putting the 10-year period on pace for 10 or 11 hurricanes.

Yet the next five to 15 years should be interesting to watch, Mr. Knaff said. The Atlantic Ocean is gradually getting warmer, meaning above-average activity could be on the horizon.

Since 1886, an average of five to six hurricanes have formed each year, though most of those haven't hit land, said Bill Frederick, a meteorologist at the National Hurricane Center in Miami. Eleven formed in 1995, and five - Bertha, Cesar, Dolly, Edouard and Fran - have come along so far this year.

Mr. Knaff said Dr. Gray's prediction team is already looking ahead to the summer of 1997. Stratospheric winds will be moving from east to west, perhaps indicating significant hurricane activity, he said. But an El Nino - a warming along the equator that causes a change in upper-level winds over the Caribbean - could slow things down.

``It's a little too early to tell,'' Mr. Knaff said. ``But it should be at least a fairly active season next year, barring an El Nino.''