Tiger Woods confirmed he will play in this year's Masters.

Now the question is: How will he fare?

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Don't let his lengthy absence fool you. Woods will be competitive. I'm not going as far to say he will win, but it wouldn't surprise me. I think he will make the 36-hole cut, though, and will be a factor at some point on the weekend.

When it was reported a few days ago that Woods was back practicing and that swing coach Hank Haney was on the scene, you knew he was serious about returning for the Masters.

Tiger has taken time off before and returned with a bang. But never at a major. My old buddy and predecessor in this job, Ward Clayton, points out that Ben Hogan is the only golfer in the last 60 years to make his season debut at a major and win. They both came in the Masters, in 1951 and 1953.

Even though Woods has not won at Augusta National since 2005, he has not finished worse than tied for sixth since then. Here's a look at some of his stats in recent years:

Woods has blamed a faulty putter for not winning the last four years. Of the players who made the cut in the 2009 Masters, only three had worse putting weeks than Woods.

The addition of trees in strategic places (think No. 11) has caused a premium on accuracy, and that has been one of his biggest downfalls in recent years. Accuracy off the tee leads to the ability to hit greens.

In three of his four Masters wins, Woods ranked first in greens in regulation. In 2005, he was second in greens hit. Of course, that year he was near the bottom in driving accuracy.

To win the Masters, you must excel at either iron play or putting. Woods has proven that you can spray it a bit with the driver and still win, but it's a rarity.

In 2009, for example, Woods ranked near the bottom with only 36 of 56 fairways hit. He was tied for sixth in greens hit with 52 out of 72, but his work on the greens was lacking. He couldn't make up the difference.

In the 16 tournament rounds beginning with 2006, Woods has only posted two rounds in the 60s. That's a problem for someone as long off the tee as Woods who also is usually pretty good with the putter.

Even with the great weather of 2009, Woods only broke 70 in the final round when he was paired with Phil Mickelson. He wound up four shots behind winner Angel Cabrera.

Woods is a notoriously slow starter at the Masters, and he has never broken 70 in the first round. The golf adage that you can't win a tournament on the first day, but you can lose it, is true.

So if he starts out slow this year, don't panic. It's not the end of the game.

But if he breaks 70, watch out. A fifth green jacket might not be far behind.