Thursday, July 4 - 7:05 p.m.
Charleston RiverDogs (6-7)
Dan Camarena (58.2 IP, 5.37 ERA, 4.02 FIP, 15.3 K%, 5.1 BB%, .294 BABIP)
Augusta GreenJackets (8-5)
Joan Gregorio (41 IP, 3.73 ERA, 2.15 FIP, 29.1 K%, 4.9 BB%, .349 BABIP)
Regression came early for Joan Gregorio. The tall right-hander has allowed three, six and five earned runs in his past three starts while going no more than five innings in each of his past two.
Gregorio's numbers indicate he's simply getting knocked around and, as manager Mike Goff said after his most recent home start, he hasn't established his fastball like he did before going on the disabled list in April with an oblique injury.
The numbers with runners on tell the story of not being able to put away hitters when it matters most, recording LOB% of 62.5, 30 and 57.7 percent in his past three outings. His BABIP has wavered from .308 to .500, but he had similar luck with batted balls earlier in the season.
Gregorio continues to get strikeouts, nearly matching his season percentage in his past two starts, but he hasn't commanded like he did in April, walking five over his past 10 innings and getting hit when missing in the zone.
Charleston failed to score in six innings against Gregorio in April, as the right-hander allowed just three hits with no walks and eight strikeouts.
Dan Camarena was drafted in the 20th round by the Yankees in 2011 out of a California high school. Camarena's numbers indicate a pitcher who relies more on weak contact than strikeouts despite throwing from the left side in a lower level.
The left-hander's ERA is a bit high for his peripherals and batted-ball numbers, as his 18 percent line drive rate shows. His walk rate indicates good control.
Camarena has faced the GreenJackets twice this season, once in a three-inning start where he allowed five runs. But he threw three perfect innings against Augusta in mid-June in a relief role. Charleston has shuffled him back and forth between the rotation and bullpen at times this season.
The GreenJackets won their past two series and haven't lost a series since June 4-6 at Greensboro. Since that set, Augusta is 15-7.
While fans in Augusta have clamored for Alex Rodriguez to make the trip to Augusta with the RiverDogs, Rodriguez will work out today before joining the Tampa Yankees at Lakeland, Fla., on Friday.